COMPARE · Reviewed August 1, 2026
UGP vs VLO
Verdict: Side-by-side breakdown using the Bull Rankings model. UGP scored 52.8, VLO scored 52.8 — tied at the top.
Compare another set
Different reporting periods. VLO's fundamentals are as of June 2026, but UGP's are as of December 2024 — a 18-month gap. Growth, margin and valuation figures below therefore describe different windows and aren't strictly like-for-like.
UGP
Ultrapar Participações S.A.
52.8
$6.50 · $6.9B
fundamentals as of
Score gap
0.0
Tied
VLO
Valero Energy Corporation
52.8
$312.90 · $90.1B
fundamentals as of
The model, pillar by pillar (0–100 each)
UGP
stronger →← stronger
VLO
51
Qualityreturns · margins · balance sheet
80
50
Growthrevenue & earnings expansion
50
80
Valuevaluation vs sector peers
37
UGP and VLO split the three pillars evenly.
Fundamentals, head-to-head
UGP
VLO
$899mC+
FCF
$8.9bB+
+5.9%C+
Rev
+12.6%B+
1.14C
D/E
0.40B+
11.6xB+
P/E
13.1xB+
0.78A-
PEG
4.08D
Winner per row is the stronger grade in our model; a tie or a missing value shows no highlight.
Valuation · DCF cross-check
UGP
VLO
37% below
Price vs fair valuelower is cheaper
46% below
~-12%/yr
Growth the price implies10-yr FCF · lower = less priced in
~-15%/yr
+76%
1-yr DCF upside
+108%
+58%
5-yr DCF upside
+86%
+36%
10-yr DCF upside
+58%
The DCF is a cross-check on intrinsic value, separate from the quality-growth score above.
Model signals
UGP
Why this score
- Raising its dividend
- Cyclical growth
- Foreign reporter (BRL)
VLO
Why this score
- Buying back stock
- Raising its dividend
- Cyclical growth
The companies
UGPUltrapar Participações S.A.
Why now
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · market cap $6.9b. Trading near 52-week high of $6.59 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. PEG 0.78 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 8 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $6.43 (implying -1% upside).
Moat
ROE 16% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 142% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Trading within 1% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Net margin 1.9% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.
VLOValero Energy Corporation
Why now
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · market cap $90.1b. Trading near 52-week high of $320.24 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. Revenue growing +13%, comfortably above the S&P median. 18 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $290.22 (implying -7% upside).
Moat
ROE 29% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 123% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined. $90.1b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Trading within 2% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Hedge-book exposure — many commodity producers hedge forward production; if the hedge book is concentrated at prices well below spot, the upside the market expects is already locked away.
Verdict — model-derived comparison
Generating verdict… typically 5–10 seconds
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.