Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

TXRH analysis

Texas Roadhouse, Inc.Restaurants. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Restaurants
TXRH
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. · Restaurants
FCF$406mC
Rev+9.9%B
D/E0.69B+
P/E32.7xC
PEG2.46C
47.0Score
$205.29$13.5B
1Y Target$217.74Analyst consensus · 23 analysts
5Y Target$318.79Compound horizon
10Y Target$472.91Long-dated conviction
FCF$406mTTM
C
FCF $406m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+9.9%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +9.9% — at or above S&P median
D/E0.69
B+
D/E 0.69 — below the Consumer Cyclical debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E32.7x
C
P/E 32.7 — expensive vs Consumer Cyclical peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG2.46
C
PEG 2.46 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 47
Quality80.9
Growth81.5
Value15.7
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
5% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value36% aboveest. fair value ~$151
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~19% a year for the next decade — vs the ~18% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
ROIC23.7% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Restaurants · market cap $13.5b. 5% off the 52-week high of $216.30. 23 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $217.74 (implying +6% upside).
Moat
ROE 27% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 96% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Trailing P/E 33x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.
Horizon
1-3 yr $217.74 (23-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $318.79 at ~9% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $472.91 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

TXRH vs the Top Picks average

PillarTXRHBook avgDiff
Quality0.810.84-0.03
Growth0.810.87-0.06
Value0.160.76-0.60

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-4.3 over 48 daily scores
From 51.3 (Jun 22) → 47.0 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+1.8%
90-day change+1.7%
Forward EPS estimate$7.78

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect TXRH to earn is drifting higher (+1.7%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
9
Position size
$1,848
3.7% of portfolio
Stop price
$153.97
25% below $205.29
$ at risk if stopped
$461.90
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH): score, valuation & FAQ

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH) is a Restaurants company that scores 47 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (B+). On valuation, TXRH sits about 36% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 19% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is TXRH a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores TXRH 47 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by D/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Texas Roadhouse, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does TXRH score 47 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). TXRH earns its highest marks on D/E (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is TXRH overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $205.29, TXRH sits about 36% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 19% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 32.7x P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in TXRH?

Trailing P/E 33x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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