Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM) stock analysis
Other Precious Metals & Mining. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
TFPM
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. · Other Precious Metals & Mining
61.7Score
$31.21Oct 9 close$6.4B
1Y Target$39.50Analyst consensus · 4 analysts
5Y Target$57.83Compound horizon
10Y Target$85.79Long-dated conviction
FCF$215mTTM · 06/26C
FCF $215m — modest; watch for margin expansion · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+44.5%FY YoYA
Revenue +44.5% — hypergrowth, top decile · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.10A-
D/E 0.10 — less debt than most Basic Materials peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E15.7xB
P/E 15.7 — near the Basic Materials median (≈60th pctile)
PEG1.24est.B
PEG 1.24 — acceptable premium for growth · PEG derived: P/E ÷ analysts' expected EPS growth for next year, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. When earnings are expected to dip this year, the growth used is the yearly average over this year and next, so a recovery isn't counted as growth.
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 61.7
Quality68.7
Growth50.0
Value68.4
Why this score
Raising its dividend
Diluting shareholders
Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
25% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value29% aboveest. fair value ~$24
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 22% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~25% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Other Precious Metals & Mining · market cap $6.4b. Down 25% from 52-week high of $41.70 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +45% — in hypergrowth territory. 4 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $39.50 (implying +27% upside).
Moat
Net margin 84% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 20% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. Mining moat is reserve quality + extraction cost per unit — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the commodity cycle while marginal producers burn it.
Risk
P/S 13.2x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard. Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.
Horizon
1-3 yr $39.50 (4-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $57.83 at ~13% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $85.79 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
TFPM vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
TFPM
Book avg
Diff
Quality
69
83
-14
Growth
50
89
-39
Value
68
76
-8
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · TFPM
Trend
+0.7 over 82 daily scores
From 61.0 (Jun 22) → 61.7 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
TFPM at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
-2.1%
90-day change
+7.0%
Forward EPS estimate
$1.51
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect TFPM to earn is materially higher (+7.0%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · TFPM
$
%
%
Shares to buy
64
Position size
$1,997
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$23.41
25% below $31.21
$ at risk if stopped
$499.36
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM): score, valuation & FAQ
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM) is an Other Precious Metals & Mining company that scores 61.7 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A) and D/E (A-). On valuation, TFPM sits about 29% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 22% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.
Is TFPM a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores TFPM 61.7 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by Rev (A) and D/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does TFPM score 61.7 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on quality at 68.7 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 50.0 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. TFPM earns its highest marks on Rev (A) and D/E (A-). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so TFPM is measured against Other Precious Metals & Mining peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is TFPM overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $31.21, TFPM sits about 29% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 22% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 15.7x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in TFPM?
P/S 13.2x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard. Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.