Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

TFPM analysis

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.Other Precious Metals & Mining. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

TFPM
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. · Other Precious Metals & Mining
FCF$215mC
Rev+44.5%A
D/E0.10A-
P/E16.9xB+
PEG1.54C+
59.7Score
$33.79$7.0B
1Y Target$39.25Analyst consensus · 4 analysts
5Y Target$57.47Compound horizon
10Y Target$85.25Long-dated conviction
FCF$215mTTM · 06/26
C
FCF $215m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 06/26).
Rev+44.5%FY YoY
A
Revenue +44.5% — hypergrowth, top decile · Computed from last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.10
A-
D/E 0.10 — less debt than most Basic Materials peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E16.9x
B+
P/E 16.9 — below the Basic Materials median (≈40th pctile)
PEG1.54est.
C+
PEG 1.54 — modest premium; above fair value · PEG derived: P/E ÷ forward 1-year analyst EPS growth, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. Same earnings-growth basis as the reported figure on other rows.

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 59.7
Quality69.7
Growth50.0
Value61.2
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
19% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value85% aboveest. fair value ~$18
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~23% a year for the next decade — vs the ~11% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Other Precious Metals & Mining · market cap $7.0b. 19% off the 52-week high of $41.70. Revenue growing +45% — in hypergrowth territory. 4 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $39.25 (implying +16% upside).
Moat
Net margin 84% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 20% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. Mining moat is reserve quality + extraction cost per unit — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the commodity cycle while marginal producers burn it.
Risk
P/S 14.2x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard. Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.
Horizon
1-3 yr $39.25 (4-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $57.47 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $85.25 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

TFPM vs the Top Picks average

PillarTFPMBook avgDiff
Quality0.700.84-0.14
Growth0.500.84-0.34
Value0.610.78-0.17

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-1.3 over 47 daily scores
From 61.0 (Jun 22) → 59.7 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+10.1%
90-day change+1.3%
Forward EPS estimate$1.54

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect TFPM to earn is drifting higher (+1.3%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
59
Position size
$1,994
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$25.34
25% below $33.79
$ at risk if stopped
$498.40
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM): score, valuation & FAQ

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM) is a Other Precious Metals & Mining company that scores 59.7 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A), D/E (A-) and P/E (B+). On valuation, TFPM sits about 85% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 23% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is TFPM a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores TFPM 59.7 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by Rev (A), D/E (A-) and P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does TFPM score 59.7 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). TFPM earns its highest marks on Rev (A), D/E (A-) and P/E (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is TFPM overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $33.79, TFPM sits about 85% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 23% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 16.9x P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in TFPM?

P/S 14.2x embeds aggressive forward growth — disappointing top-line guidance would compress the multiple hard. Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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