1Y Target$13.80Near-term target
5Y Target$19.33Compound horizon
10Y Target$28.41Long-dated conviction
FCF$359mTTM · 03/26CFCF $359m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+169.3%TTM YoYARevenue +169.3% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E0.42B+D/E 0.42 — healthy leverage, well below danger zone
P/E16.7xB+P/E 16.7 — at or below S&P median, reasonable
PEG——PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable
Why now
Gold · market cap $4.2b. Down 45% from 52-week high of $21.98 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +169% — in hypergrowth territory.
Moat
Net margin 19% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 42% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 142% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Down 45% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Jurisdictional + permitting risk — mining and extraction operations concentrate exposure to political stability, royalty regimes, and environmental review timelines that can stall production for years.
Horizon
1-3 yr $13.80 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $19.33 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $28.41 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
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