Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

ORLA analysis

Orla Mining LtdGold. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

ORLA
Orla Mining Ltd · Gold
FCF$359mC
Rev+207.6%A
D/E0.42B
P/E13.1xA-
PEG1.34B
65.2Score
$9.44$3.5B
1Y Target$10.86Model estimate · no analyst coverage
5Y Target$15.89Compound horizon
10Y Target$23.58Long-dated conviction
FCF$359mTTM · 03/26
C
FCF $359m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+207.6%FY YoY
A
Revenue +207.6% — hypergrowth, top decile · Computed from last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.42
B
D/E 0.42 — near the Basic Materials debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E13.1x
A-
P/E 13.1 — cheaper than most Basic Materials peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG1.34est.
B
PEG 1.34 — acceptable premium for growth · PEG derived: P/E ÷ forward 1-year analyst EPS growth, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. Same earnings-growth basis as the reported figure on other rows.

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 65.2
Quality81.0
Growth50.0
Value68.4
Why this score
  • Cyclical growth
  • Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
57% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value35% belowest. fair value ~$14
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-4% a year for the next decade — vs the ~10% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Gold · market cap $3.5b. Down 57% from 52-week high of $21.98 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +208% — in hypergrowth territory.
Moat
Net margin 19% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 42% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 142% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Down 57% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Jurisdictional + permitting risk — mining and extraction operations concentrate exposure to political stability, royalty regimes, and environmental review timelines that can stall production for years.
Horizon
1-3 yr $10.86 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $15.89 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $23.58 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

ORLA vs the Top Picks average

PillarORLABook avgDiff
Quality0.810.84-0.03
Growth0.500.84-0.34
Value0.680.78-0.10

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-1.1 over 47 daily scores
From 66.3 (Jun 22) → 65.2 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+7.7%
90-day change+6.4%
Forward EPS estimate$1.77

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect ORLA to earn is materially higher (+6.4%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
211
Position size
$1,992
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$7.08
25% below $9.44
$ at risk if stopped
$497.96
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Orla Mining Ltd (ORLA): score, valuation & FAQ

Orla Mining Ltd (ORLA) is a Gold company that scores 65.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A) and P/E (A-). On valuation, ORLA sits about 35% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -4% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is ORLA a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores ORLA 65.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by Rev (A) and P/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Orla Mining Ltd's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does ORLA score 65.2 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). ORLA earns its highest marks on Rev (A) and P/E (A-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is ORLA overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $9.44, ORLA sits about 35% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -4% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 13.1x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in ORLA?

Down 57% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Jurisdictional + permitting risk — mining and extraction operations concentrate exposure to political stability, royalty regimes, and environmental review timelines that can stall production for years.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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