1Y Target$10.75Near-term target
5Y Target$15.06Compound horizon
10Y Target$22.13Long-dated conviction
FCF$563mTTM · 03/26C+FCF $563m — respectable but not differentiating · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+75.6%TTM YoYARevenue +75.6% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E0.11A-D/E 0.11 — conservative leverage, strong balance sheet
P/E8.7xA-P/E 8.7 — cheap relative to market and most sectors
PEG——PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable
Why now
Gold · market cap $2.8b. Down 32% from 52-week high of $13.85 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +76% — in hypergrowth territory.
Moat
Net margin 31% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 22% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 164% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Down 32% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 2.09 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Production-cost sensitivity — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the cycle while marginal producers burn it; watch the cost-per-unit trend, not just headline revenue.
Horizon
1-3 yr $10.75 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $15.06 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $22.13 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
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