Fortuna Mining Corp. — Gold. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
FSM
Fortuna Mining Corp. · Gold
FCF$613mC+
Rev+39.8%A
D/E0.13A-
P/E10.1xA
PEG0.44A
70.2Score
$12.07$3.6B
1Y Target$13.04Model estimate · no analyst coverage
5Y Target$16.46Compound horizon
10Y Target$21.11Long-dated conviction
FCF$613mTTM · 06/26C+
FCF $613m — respectable but not differentiating · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 06/26).
Rev+39.8%TTM YoYA
Revenue +39.8% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E0.13A-
D/E 0.13 — less debt than most Basic Materials peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E10.1xA
P/E 10.1 — cheapest decile in Basic Materials (≈10th pctile)
PEG0.44est.A
PEG 0.44 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth · PEG derived: P/E ÷ forward 1-year analyst EPS growth, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. Same earnings-growth basis as the reported figure on other rows.
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 70.2
Quality82.5
Growth50.0
Value83.9
Why this score
Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
13% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value55% belowest. fair value ~$27
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-7% a year for the next decade — vs the ~23% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability20% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC18.1% · A-return on invested capital — not score-weighted
Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.
Why now
The Lindero and Séguéla gold mines are set to ride a 39.8% FY revenue surge backed by a 32.8% profit margin and a rock‑solid PE of 8.9x, delivering a cheap, high‑margin earnings engine. Our Bull Rankings model flags a Value pillar of 96, meaning the market is severely discounting this cash‑rich franchise, while the Growth pillar (50) is the only drag. The thesis hinges on sustaining the near‑40% top‑line growth, which will keep free cash flow expanding far faster than the reverse‑DCF implied –11% annual growth baked into today’s $9.56 price.
Moat
Fortuna’s moat lives in its geographically diversified, high‑grade gold assets across Argentina, Côte d’Ivoire, Mexico, Peru and Senegal, especially the Lindero and Séguéla operations that deliver low‑cost production and pricing power, reflected in a 17.9% ROE. The combination of low debt (D/E 0.11) and strong cash conversion ($563 m FCF) creates a barrier to entry for rivals who lack similar multi‑country, low‑cost mine portfolios.
Risk
The biggest headwind is the cyclical nature of gold prices; a sustained price decline would erode the 32.8% margin and pressure the 8.9x PE, while the model’s weak Growth pillar (50) signals that the current 39.8% revenue growth may be unsustainable. A beta of 2.12 amplifies market swings, and any miss on the 52‑week low‑high swing (13.85‑6.17) would trigger a sell‑off. A break below the 52‑week low would confirm the bear case and invalidate the growth narrative.
Horizon
1-3 yr $13.04 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $16.46 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $21.11 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
FSM vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
FSM
Book avg
Diff
Quality
0.82
0.84
in line
Growth
0.50
0.84
-0.34
Value
0.84
0.78
+0.06
Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.
Score history · FSM
Trend
-1.8 over 47 daily scores
From 72.0 (Jun 22) → 70.2 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+7.7%
90-day change
+6.4%
Forward EPS estimate
$1.76
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect FSM to earn is materially higher (+6.4%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →
Position sizing · FSM
$
%
%
Shares to buy
165
Position size
$1,992
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$9.05
25% below $12.07
$ at risk if stopped
$497.89
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
Fortuna Mining Corp. (FSM) is a Gold company that scores 70.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A), P/E (A) and PEG (A). On valuation, FSM sits about 55% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -7% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is FSM a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores FSM 70.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by Rev (A), P/E (A) and PEG (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Fortuna Mining Corp.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does FSM score 70.2 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). FSM earns its highest marks on Rev (A), P/E (A) and PEG (A). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is FSM overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $12.07, FSM sits about 55% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -7% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 10.1x P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in FSM?
The biggest headwind is the cyclical nature of gold prices; a sustained price decline would erode the 32.8% margin and pressure the 8.9x PE, while the model’s weak Growth pillar (50) signals that the current 39.8% revenue growth may be unsustainable. A beta of 2.12 amplifies market swings, and any miss on the 52‑week low‑high swing (13.85‑6.17) would trigger a sell‑off. A break below the 52‑week low would confirm the bear case and invalidate the growth narrative.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.