Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

NOMD analysis

Nomad Foods LimitedPackaged Foods. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

NOMD
Nomad Foods Limited · Packaged Foods
FCF$275mC
Rev-2.2%D+
D/E0.92B
P/E11.4xA
PEG2.79C
45.4Score
$11.54$1.6B
1Y Target$13.64Analyst consensus · 5 analysts
5Y Target$17.22Compound horizon
10Y Target$22.09Long-dated conviction
FCF$275mTTM · 03/26
C
FCF $275m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev-2.2%TTM YoY
D+
Revenue -2.2% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse
D/E0.92
B
D/E 0.92 — near the Consumer Defensive debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E11.4x
A
P/E 11.4 — cheapest decile in Consumer Defensive (≈10th pctile)
PEG2.79est.
C
PEG 2.79 — expensive relative to growth rate · PEG derived: P/E ÷ forward 1-year analyst EPS growth, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. Same earnings-growth basis as the reported figure on other rows.

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 45.4
Quality55.7
Growth44.5
Value44.1
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Foreign reporter (EUR)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
27% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value71% belowest. fair value ~$40
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-24% a year for the next decade — vs the ~4% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability13% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC5.4% · C+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Packaged Foods · market cap $1.6b. Down 27% from 52-week high of $15.91 — deep drawdown territory. 5 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $13.64 (implying +18% upside).
Moat
FCF converts 191% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Net margin 4.5% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. ROE 5% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Horizon
1-3 yr $13.64 (5-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $17.22 at ~8% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $22.09 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

NOMD vs the Top Picks average

PillarNOMDBook avgDiff
Quality0.560.84-0.28
Growth0.440.84-0.39
Value0.440.78-0.34

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-16.8 over 45 daily scores
From 62.2 (Jun 22) → 45.4 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-7.2%
90-day change-9.4%
Forward EPS estimate$1.72

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect NOMD to earn is materially lower (-9.4%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
173
Position size
$1,996
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$8.65
25% below $11.54
$ at risk if stopped
$499.10
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD): score, valuation & FAQ

Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD) is a Packaged Foods company that scores 45.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A), while Rev (D+) rate weaker. On valuation, NOMD sits about 71% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -24% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is NOMD a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores NOMD 45.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by P/E (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Nomad Foods Limited's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does NOMD score 45.4 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). NOMD earns its highest marks on P/E (A), and is held back by Rev (D+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is NOMD overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $11.54, NOMD sits about 71% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -24% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 11.4x P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in NOMD?

Net margin 4.5% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. ROE 5% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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