Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

NIO analysis

NIO Inc.Auto Manufacturers. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Electric Vehicles & Battery
NIO
NIO Inc. · Auto Manufacturers
FCF
Rev+33.1%A
D/E1.83C+
P/S0.7xB+
PEG
26.3Score
$4.36$10.9B
1Y Target$7.38Analyst consensus · 24 analysts
5Y Target$12.90Compound horizon
10Y Target$23.06Long-dated conviction
FCF
FCF not applicable for this sector (bank / insurer / REIT) or data unavailable
Rev+33.1%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +33.1% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E1.83
C+
D/E 1.83 — above the Consumer Cyclical debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/S0.7x
B+
P/S 0.7x — below the Consumer Cyclical median (≈40th pctile)
PEG
PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 26.3
Quality16.4
Growth50.0
Value40.0
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
  • Cyclical growth
  • Foreign reporter (CNY)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
46% off the 12-month high
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability10% · Cgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC-61.2% · Freturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
NIO is the only Chinese EV maker with a fully integrated battery-swap ecosystem, and that moat is compounding at 33.1% revenue growth year-over-year. The Power Swap network—where drivers pull in for a 5-minute battery swap instead of a 30-minute charge—covers a growing footprint across China and Europe, locking in repeat usage and pricing power. With a 1.71 mean analyst recommendation from 24 shops, the Street is pricing in a near-term rerating to $7.38—a 70% upside from today’s $4.36—because the swap model solves the single biggest friction in EV adoption. The crux: if battery-swap adoption accelerates, NIO’s take-rate per swap and SUV margins will expand in lockstep.
Moat
The Power Swap network is a self-reinforcing moat: each swap station requires specialized robotics and software, creating a data flywheel that optimizes swap pricing and station placement. Competitors can’t replicate this quickly because NIO’s battery packs are proprietary (70 kWh, 100 kWh, and 150 kWh chemistries locked to its architecture), and the swap stations require OEM‑specific integration. The result is ROE destruction today (-359.2%), but once scale flips, the model will flip to positive ROE—just like Tesla’s Supercharger network did.
Risk
The debt-to-equity ratio of 1.83 is the bear’s smoking gun: NIO is funding growth with leverage while burning cash, and if growth stalls, the balance sheet becomes unsustainable. The Power Swap model also faces substitution risk from 800V architecture EVs that can charge in 10 minutes—rendering swaps obsolete. The bear case confirms if revenue growth drops below 20% or if D/E rises above 2.0, at which point the $7.38 target becomes a ceiling, not a floor.
Horizon
1-3 yr $7.38 (24-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $12.90 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $23.06 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

NIO vs the Top Picks average

PillarNIOBook avgDiff
Quality0.160.84-0.67
Growth0.500.87-0.37
Value0.400.76-0.36

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+12.8 over 45 daily scores
From 13.5 (Jun 22) → 26.3 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.8%
90-day change+10.8%
Forward EPS estimate$0.17

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect NIO to earn is materially higher (+10.8%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A fiscal-year roll fell inside this window: the forward horizon moved on to the next financial year, which shifts the earnings figure without any analyst changing their view. That step is excluded, so the number above covers the rest of the window rather than all of it.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
458
Position size
$1,997
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$3.27
25% below $4.36
$ at risk if stopped
$499.22
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

NIO Inc. (NIO): score, valuation & FAQ

NIO Inc. (NIO) is a Auto Manufacturers company that scores 26.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A) and P/S (B+).

Is NIO a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores NIO 26.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. That is driven by Rev (A) and P/S (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of NIO Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does NIO score 26.3 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). NIO earns its highest marks on Rev (A) and P/S (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is NIO overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for NIO — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in NIO?

The debt-to-equity ratio of 1.83 is the bear’s smoking gun: NIO is funding growth with leverage while burning cash, and if growth stalls, the balance sheet becomes unsustainable. The Power Swap model also faces substitution risk from 800V architecture EVs that can charge in 10 minutes—rendering swaps obsolete. The bear case confirms if revenue growth drops below 20% or if D/E rises above 2.0, at which point the $7.38 target becomes a ceiling, not a floor.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

More Automotive stocks by score

All Consumer Cyclical rankings →

Analyze another ticker →