Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

NEXA analysis

Nexa Resources S.A.Other Industrial Metals & Mining. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

NEXA
Nexa Resources S.A. · Other Industrial Metals & Mining
FCF$13mC-
Rev+8.5%B
D/E1.25C
P/E7.4xA
PEG0.31A
58.1Score
$15.40$2.0B
1Y Target$14.88Analyst consensus · 8 analysts
5Y Target$18.78Compound horizon
10Y Target$24.08Long-dated conviction
FCF$13mTTM
C-
FCF $13m — barely positive; fragile cash position
Rev+8.5%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +8.5% — at or above S&P median
D/E1.25
C
D/E 1.25 — more levered than most Basic Materials peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E7.4x
A
P/E 7.4 — cheapest decile in Basic Materials (≈10th pctile)
PEG0.31est.
A
PEG 0.31 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth · PEG derived: P/E ÷ forward 1-year analyst EPS growth, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. Same earnings-growth basis as the reported figure on other rows.

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 58.1
Quality53.8
Growth50.0
Value72.9
Why this score
  • Cut its dividend
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
9% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value570% aboveest. fair value ~$2
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding above 60% a year for the next decade — vs the ~22% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability14% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC13.1% · B+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · market cap $2.0b. 9% off the 52-week high of $16.89. PEG 0.31 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 8 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $14.88 (implying -3% upside).
Moat
ROE 17% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. Mining moat is reserve quality + extraction cost per unit — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the commodity cycle while marginal producers burn it.
Risk
Production-cost sensitivity — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the cycle while marginal producers burn it; watch the cost-per-unit trend, not just headline revenue.
Horizon
1-3 yr $14.88 (8-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $18.78 at ~4% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $24.08 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

NEXA vs the Top Picks average

PillarNEXABook avgDiff
Quality0.540.84-0.30
Growth0.500.84-0.34
Value0.730.78-0.05

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-5.6 over 47 daily scores
From 63.7 (Jun 22) → 58.1 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-12.7%
90-day change+28.3%
Forward EPS estimate$3.08

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect NEXA to earn is materially higher (+28.3%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
129
Position size
$1,987
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$11.55
25% below $15.40
$ at risk if stopped
$496.65
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Nexa Resources S.A. (NEXA): score, valuation & FAQ

Nexa Resources S.A. (NEXA) is a Other Industrial Metals & Mining company that scores 58.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A) and PEG (A), while FCF (C-) rate weaker. On valuation, NEXA sits about 570% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free-cash-flow growth above 60% a year for the next decade.

Is NEXA a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores NEXA 58.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/E (A) and PEG (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Nexa Resources S.A.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does NEXA score 58.1 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). NEXA earns its highest marks on P/E (A) and PEG (A), and is held back by FCF (C-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is NEXA overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $15.40, NEXA sits about 570% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free-cash-flow growth above 60% a year for the next decade. It trades at a 7.4x P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in NEXA?

Production-cost sensitivity — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the cycle while marginal producers burn it; watch the cost-per-unit trend, not just headline revenue.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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