Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

HMY analysis

Harmony Gold Mining Company LimitedGold. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.

HMY
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited · Gold
FCF
Rev+20.4%A-
D/E0.25B+
P/E9.8xA-
PEG0.03A
68.6Score
$15.32$9.7B
1Y Target$20.73Analyst consensus · 3 analysts
5Y Target$30.34Compound horizon
10Y Target$45.01Long-dated conviction
FCF
FCF not applicable for this sector (bank / insurer / REIT) or data unavailable
Rev+20.4%TTM YoY
A-
Revenue +20.4% — strong growth, well above S&P median (~7%)
D/E0.25
B+
D/E 0.25 — below the Basic Materials debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E9.8x
A-
P/E 9.8 — cheaper than most Basic Materials peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG0.03
A
PEG 0.03 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 68.6
Quality0.89
Growth0.50
Value0.99
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Durable high returns
  • Cyclical growth
  • Foreign reporter (ZAR)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
41% off the 12-month high
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability31% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC31.9% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Gold · market cap $9.7b. Down 41% from 52-week high of $26.06 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +20%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.03 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 3 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $20.73 (implying +35% upside).
Moat
Net margin 20% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 30% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. Mining moat is reserve quality + extraction cost per unit — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the commodity cycle while marginal producers burn it.
Risk
Down 41% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Jurisdictional + permitting risk — mining and extraction operations concentrate exposure to political stability, royalty regimes, and environmental review timelines that can stall production for years.
Horizon
1-3 yr $20.73 (3-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $30.34 at ~15% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $45.01 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Trend
+1.7 over 22 daily scores
From 66.9 (Jun 22) → 68.6 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
130
Position size
$1,992
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$11.49
25% below $15.32
$ at risk if stopped
$497.90
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY): score, valuation & FAQ

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) is a Gold company that scores 68.6 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A), Rev (A-) and P/E (A-).

Is HMY a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores HMY 68.6 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by PEG (A), Rev (A-) and P/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does HMY score 68.6 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). HMY earns its highest marks on PEG (A), Rev (A-) and P/E (A-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is HMY overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for HMY — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in HMY?

Down 41% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Jurisdictional + permitting risk — mining and extraction operations concentrate exposure to political stability, royalty regimes, and environmental review timelines that can stall production for years.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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