Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

MUR analysis

Murphy Oil CorporationOil & Gas E&P. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

MUR
Murphy Oil Corporation · Oil & Gas E&P
FCF$222mC
Rev+7.7%B
D/E0.42B+
P/E18.5xB
PEG0.33A
54.1Score
$37.41$5.4B
1Y Target$39.93Analyst consensus · 14 analysts
5Y Target$50.41Compound horizon
10Y Target$64.65Long-dated conviction
FCF$222mTTM
C
FCF $222m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+7.7%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +7.7% — at or above S&P median
D/E0.42
B+
D/E 0.42 — below the Energy debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E18.5x
B
P/E 18.5 — near the Energy median (≈60th pctile)
PEG0.33
A
PEG 0.33 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 54.1
Quality58.1
Growth50.0
Value54.6
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
14% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value1% aboveest. fair value ~$37
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~3% a year for the next decade — vs the ~2% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability29% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC5.2% · C+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Oil & Gas E&P · market cap $5.4b. 14% off the 52-week high of $43.34. PEG 0.33 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 14 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $39.93 (implying +7% upside).
Moat
Moat signals from the quantitative card are modest — profitability and capital efficiency are middle-of-pack. The thesis here depends on softer factors (switching costs, brand, distribution, regulatory protection) not captured by the quality-growth screen.
Risk
ROE 6% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate. Production-cost sensitivity — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the cycle while marginal producers burn it; watch the cost-per-unit trend, not just headline revenue.
Horizon
1-3 yr $39.93 (14-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $50.41 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $64.65 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

MUR vs the Top Picks average

PillarMURBook avgDiff
Quality0.580.84-0.26
Growth0.500.84-0.34
Value0.550.78-0.24

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+15.6 over 45 daily scores
From 38.5 (Jun 22) → 54.1 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-3.0%
90-day change-15.3%
Forward EPS estimate$2.96

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect MUR to earn is materially lower (-15.3%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
53
Position size
$1,983
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$28.06
25% below $37.41
$ at risk if stopped
$495.68
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR): score, valuation & FAQ

Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) is a Oil & Gas E&P company that scores 54.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A) and D/E (B+). On valuation, MUR sits close to our DCF fair-value estimate (within a few percent) — the current price implies roughly 3% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is MUR a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores MUR 54.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by PEG (A) and D/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Murphy Oil Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does MUR score 54.1 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). MUR earns its highest marks on PEG (A) and D/E (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is MUR overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $37.41, MUR sits close to our DCF fair-value estimate (within a few percent) — the current price implies roughly 3% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 18.5x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in MUR?

ROE 6% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate. Production-cost sensitivity — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the cycle while marginal producers burn it; watch the cost-per-unit trend, not just headline revenue.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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