Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

MOS analysis

The Mosaic CompanyAgricultural Inputs. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Agriculture & Food
MOS
The Mosaic Company · Agricultural Inputs
FCF-$947mF
Rev+8.8%B
D/E0.52C+
P/S0.6xA
PEG2.02C
34.9Score
$24.00$7.6B
1Y Target$26.47Analyst consensus · 19 analysts
5Y Target$46.29Compound horizon
10Y Target$82.74Long-dated conviction
FCF-$947mTTM
F
FCF is negative (-$947m) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names
Rev+8.8%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +8.8% — at or above S&P median
D/E0.52
C+
D/E 0.52 — above the Basic Materials debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/S0.6x
A
P/S 0.6x — cheapest decile in Basic Materials (≈10th pctile)
PEG2.02
C
PEG 2.02 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 34.9
Quality30.5
Growth50.0
Value27.8
Why this score
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
35% off the 12-month high
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability5% · Cgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC-0.8% · Freturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Agricultural Inputs · market cap $7.6b. Down 35% from 52-week high of $36.99 — deep drawdown territory. 19 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $26.47 (implying +10% upside).
Moat
Turnaround / out-of-favor name — GAAP-unprofitable for now, so the durability case is forward-looking: it rests on a recovery (margin normalization, a cyclical upturn or restructuring) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than on current reported results.
Risk
Free cash flow is negative (-$947m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Currently unprofitable (margin -5.2%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Down 35% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $26.47 (19-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $46.29 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $82.74 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

MOS vs the Top Picks average

PillarMOSBook avgDiff
Quality0.310.84-0.53
Growth0.500.87-0.37
Value0.280.76-0.48

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+2.9 over 48 daily scores
From 32.0 (Jun 22) → 34.9 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-11.9%
90-day change-12.3%
Forward EPS estimate$1.61

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect MOS to earn is materially lower (-12.3%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
83
Position size
$1,992
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$18.00
25% below $24.00
$ at risk if stopped
$498.00
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

The Mosaic Company (MOS): score, valuation & FAQ

The Mosaic Company (MOS) is a Agricultural Inputs company that scores 34.9 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/S (A), while FCF (F) rate weaker.

Is MOS a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores MOS 34.9 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. That is driven by P/S (A). A score is a quantitative screen of The Mosaic Company's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does MOS score 34.9 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). MOS earns its highest marks on P/S (A), and is held back by FCF (F). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is MOS overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for MOS — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in MOS?

Free cash flow is negative (-$947m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Currently unprofitable (margin -5.2%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Down 35% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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