CF Industries Holdings, Inc. — Agricultural Inputs. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
CF
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. · Agricultural Inputs
FCF$1.6bC+
Rev+20.9%A-
D/E0.44B
P/E10.6xA-
PEG3.75D
60Score
$117.86$18.1B
1Y Target$125.25Analyst consensus · 19 analysts
5Y Target$183.38Compound horizon
10Y Target$272.03Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.6bTTMC+
FCF $1.6b — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+20.9%TTM YoYA-
Revenue +20.9% — strong growth, well above S&P median (~7%)
D/E0.44B
D/E 0.44 — near the Basic Materials debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E10.6xA-
P/E 10.6 — cheaper than most Basic Materials peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG3.75D
PEG 3.75 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 60
Quality0.89
Growth0.50
Value0.49
Why this score
Buying back stock
Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
17% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value8% belowest. fair value ~$129
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-4% a year for the next decade — vs the ~-5% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability20% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC22.4% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Agricultural Inputs · market cap $18.1b. 17% off the 52-week high of $141.96. Revenue growing +21%, comfortably above the S&P median. 19 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $125.25 (implying +6% upside).
Moat
Net margin 29% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 40% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $125.25 (19-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $183.38 at ~9% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $272.03 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
CF vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
CF
Book avg
Diff
Quality
0.89
0.83
+0.06
Growth
0.50
0.91
-0.41
Value
0.49
0.75
-0.26
Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.8). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.
Score history · CF
Trend
-1.0 over 34 daily scores
From 61.0 (Jun 22) → 60.0 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
Position sizing · CF
$
%
%
Shares to buy
16
Position size
$1,886
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$88.39
25% below $117.86
$ at risk if stopped
$471.44
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF): score, valuation & FAQ
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) is a Agricultural Inputs company that scores 60 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A-) and P/E (A-), while PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, CF sits about 8% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -4% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is CF a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores CF 60 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by Rev (A-) and P/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does CF score 60 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). CF earns its highest marks on Rev (A-) and P/E (A-), and is held back by PEG (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is CF overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $117.86, CF sits about 8% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -4% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 10.6x× P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in CF?
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.