Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

SHW analysis

The Sherwin-Williams CompanySpecialty Chemicals. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.

SHW
The Sherwin-Williams Company · Specialty Chemicals
FCF$2.9bB
Rev+3.9%C+
D/E3.30D
P/E30.7xC+
PEG2.46C
54.5Score
$319.91$78.9B
1Y Target$379.60Analyst consensus · 20 analysts
5Y Target$555.77Compound horizon
10Y Target$824.45Long-dated conviction
FCF$2.9bTTM
B
FCF $2.9b — solid, comfortably covers operations and capital return
Rev+3.9%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +3.9% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E3.30
D
D/E 3.30 — most levered decile in Basic Materials (≈95th pctile)
P/E30.7x
C+
P/E 30.7 — above the Basic Materials median (≈75th pctile)
PEG2.46
C
PEG 2.46 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 54.5
Quality0.78
Growth0.50
Value0.42
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Durable high returns
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
16% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value59% aboveest. fair value ~$201
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~20% a year for the next decade — vs the ~13% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability44% · A-gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC21.6% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Specialty Chemicals · market cap $78.9b. 16% off the 52-week high of $379.65. 20 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $379.60 (implying +19% upside).
Moat
ROE 59% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 112% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined. $78.9b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
D/E 3.30 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Trailing P/E 31x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.
Horizon
1-3 yr $379.60 (20-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $555.77 at ~12% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $824.45 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Trend
-1.4 over 25 daily scores
From 55.9 (Jun 22) → 54.5 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
6
Position size
$1,919
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$239.93
25% below $319.91
$ at risk if stopped
$479.87
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW): score, valuation & FAQ

The Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) is a Specialty Chemicals company that scores 54.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

The model flags D/E (D) as weaker areas. On valuation, SHW sits about 59% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 20% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is SHW a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores SHW 54.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. A score is a quantitative screen of The Sherwin-Williams Company's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does SHW score 54.5 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). SHW grades middle-of-pack across the strip, and is held back by D/E (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is SHW overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $319.91, SHW sits about 59% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 20% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 30.7x× P/E (graded C+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in SHW?

D/E 3.30 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Trailing P/E 31x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

More Basic Materials stocks by score

All Basic Materials rankings →

Analyze another ticker →