Bull Rankings model

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (AXTA) stock analysis

Specialty Chemicals. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
AXTA
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. · Specialty Chemicals
52.5Score
$32.63Oct 9 close$7.0B
1Y Target$39.27Analyst consensus · 15 analysts
5Y Target$57.49Compound horizon
10Y Target$85.28Long-dated conviction
FCF$488mTTM · 03/26
C
FCF $488m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 03/26.
Rev-2.6%TTM YoY
D+
Revenue -2.6% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E1.19
C
D/E 1.19 — more levered than most Basic Materials peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E20.0x
B
P/E 20.0 — near the Basic Materials median (≈60th pctile)
PEG2.04
C
PEG 2.04 — expensive relative to growth rate

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 52.5
Quality64.6
Growth33.1
Value67.5
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
15% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value10% aboveest. fair value ~$30
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 8% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~6% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability23% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC9.9% · Breturn on invested capital — leads the quality score

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Specialty Chemicals · market cap $7.0b. 15% off the 52-week high of $38.61. 15 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $39.27 (implying +20% upside).
Moat
ROE 15% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 132% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $39.27 (15-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $57.49 at ~12% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $85.28 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.

AXTA vs the Top Picks average

PillarAXTABook avgDiff
Quality6583-18
Growth3389-56
Value6876-8

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
-5.5 over 82 daily scores
From 58.0 (Jun 22) → 52.5 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

AXTA at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD52.5/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY64.6GROWTH33.1VALUE67.5Reverse-DCF · Price implies ~8% growth a year from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$28.8$31.2FAIR-VALUE RANGE$32.6PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$29.8 · price $32.6 is 10% above it.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+24%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$32.6LOW $24.9HIGH $38.6Trading at the 56th percentile of its 52-week range ($24.9–$38.6).

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-0.0%
90-day change+1.7%
Forward EPS estimate$2.86

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect AXTA to earn is drifting higher (+1.7%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
61
Position size
$1,990
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$24.47
25% below $32.63
$ at risk if stopped
$497.61
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (AXTA): score, valuation & FAQ

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (AXTA) is a Specialty Chemicals company that scores 52.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

The model flags Rev (D+) as weaker areas. On valuation, AXTA sits about 10% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 8% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.

Is AXTA a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores AXTA 52.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. A score is a quantitative screen of Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does AXTA score 52.5 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on value at 67.5 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 33.1 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. AXTA grades middle-of-pack across the graded signals, and is held back by Rev (D+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so AXTA is measured against Specialty Chemicals peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is AXTA overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $32.63, AXTA sits about 10% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 8% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 20.0x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in AXTA?

Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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