Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

AXTA analysis

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.Specialty Chemicals. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

AXTA
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. · Specialty Chemicals
FCF$488mC
Rev-2.6%D+
D/E1.19C
P/E22.8xB
PEG2.04C
57.4Score
$37.55$8.0B
1Y Target$38.57Analyst consensus · 14 analysts
5Y Target$56.47Compound horizon
10Y Target$83.77Long-dated conviction
FCF$488mTTM
C
FCF $488m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev-2.6%TTM YoY
D+
Revenue -2.6% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse
D/E1.19
C
D/E 1.19 — more levered than most Basic Materials peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E22.8x
B
P/E 22.8 — near the Basic Materials median (≈60th pctile)
PEG2.04
C
PEG 2.04 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 57.4
Quality0.65
Growth0.50
Value0.59
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Revenue shrinking
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
0% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value19% aboveest. fair value ~$31
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~10% a year for the next decade — vs the ~8% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability23% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC9.9% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Specialty Chemicals · market cap $8.0b. Trading near 52-week high of $37.67 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. 14 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $38.57 (implying +3% upside).
Moat
ROE 15% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 132% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Trading within 0% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction.
Horizon
1-3 yr $38.57 (14-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $56.47 at ~9% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $83.77 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

AXTA vs the Top Picks average

PillarAXTABook avgDiff
Quality0.650.83-0.18
Growth0.500.91-0.41
Value0.590.75-0.16

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.8). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-0.6 over 34 daily scores
From 58.0 (Jun 22) → 57.4 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
53
Position size
$1,990
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$28.16
25% below $37.55
$ at risk if stopped
$497.54
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (AXTA): score, valuation & FAQ

Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (AXTA) is a Specialty Chemicals company that scores 57.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

The model flags Rev (D+) as weaker areas. On valuation, AXTA sits about 19% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 10% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is AXTA a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores AXTA 57.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. A score is a quantitative screen of Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does AXTA score 57.4 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). AXTA grades middle-of-pack across the strip, and is held back by Rev (D+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is AXTA overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $37.55, AXTA sits about 19% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 10% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 22.8x× P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in AXTA?

Trading within 0% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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