Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

MCD analysis

McDonald's CorporationRestaurants. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Restaurants
MCD
McDonald's Corporation · Restaurants
FCF$7.8bB+
Rev+6.3%C+
D/E
P/E22.0xB
PEG2.53C
56.3Score
$272.54$192.9B
1Y Target$316.06Analyst consensus · 31 analysts
5Y Target$462.75Compound horizon
10Y Target$686.46Long-dated conviction
FCF$7.8bTTM
B+
FCF $7.8b — strong cash profile, above most peers
Rev+6.3%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +6.3% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E
D/E data unavailable — neutral default
P/E22.0x
B
P/E 22.0 — near the Consumer Cyclical median (≈60th pctile)
PEG2.53
C
PEG 2.53 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 56.3
Quality76.7
Growth65.9
Value35.3
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
20% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value50% aboveest. fair value ~$181
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~16% a year for the next decade — vs the ~8% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Restaurants · market cap $192.9b. Down 20% from 52-week high of $341.75 — deep drawdown territory. 31 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $316.06 (implying +16% upside).
Moat
Net margin 32% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. $192.9b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
ROE -859% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Horizon
1-3 yr $316.06 (31-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $462.75 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $686.46 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

MCD vs the Top Picks average

PillarMCDBook avgDiff
Quality0.770.84-0.07
Growth0.660.87-0.21
Value0.350.76-0.40

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+3.3 over 46 daily scores
From 53.0 (Jun 22) → 56.3 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-0.9%
90-day change-1.6%
Forward EPS estimate$14.00

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect MCD to earn is drifting lower (-1.6%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
7
Position size
$1,908
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$204.41
25% below $272.54
$ at risk if stopped
$476.95
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

McDonald's Corporation (MCD): score, valuation & FAQ

McDonald's Corporation (MCD) is a Restaurants company that scores 56.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are FCF (B+). On valuation, MCD sits about 50% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 16% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is MCD a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores MCD 56.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by FCF (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of McDonald's Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does MCD score 56.3 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). MCD earns its highest marks on FCF (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is MCD overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $272.54, MCD sits about 50% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 16% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 22.0x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in MCD?

ROE -859% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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