Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

LI analysis

Li Auto Inc.Auto Manufacturers. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Electric Vehicles & Battery
LI
Li Auto Inc. · Auto Manufacturers
FCF-$1.6bF
Rev-22.3%F
D/E0.25A-
P/S0.8xB+
PEG0.82B+
23.2Score
$13.05$12.8B
1Y Target$18.24Analyst consensus · 25 analysts
5Y Target$31.90Compound horizon
10Y Target$57.02Long-dated conviction
FCF-$1.6bTTM · 03/26
F
FCF is negative (-$1.6b) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev-22.3%TTM YoY
F
Revenue -22.3% — severe decline
D/E0.25
A-
D/E 0.25 — less debt than most Consumer Cyclical peers (≈25th pctile)
P/S0.8x
B+
P/S 0.8x — below the Consumer Cyclical median (≈40th pctile)
PEG0.82
B+
PEG 0.82 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 23.2
Quality29.3
Growth14.7
Value52.9
Why this score
  • Foreign reporter (CNY)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
52% off the 12-month high
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability14% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC-0.5% · Freturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
The bull case hinges on Li Auto’s premium smart electric multi‑purpose vehicle platform, which is uniquely positioned to capture the fast‑growing Chinese EV SUV market. Management is leveraging its $12.5b market cap to fund a product pipeline that should lift revenue despite a recent -22.3% YoY decline, because the PEG of 0.82 signals that earnings growth is still cheap relative to its modest cash burn of -$1.6b. With a low beta of 0.55 and a debt‑to‑equity of just 0.25, the balance sheet can sustain the turnaround, and the thesis rests on the company re‑establishing a positive growth trajectory in its core SUV line.
Moat
Li Auto’s moat derives from its integrated sales and after‑sales network that blends online ordering with offline service hubs, creating high switching costs for owners of its premium SUVs. The company’s proprietary technology stack for smart EVs, combined with a vertically integrated manufacturing footprint, yields a modest but defensible pricing advantage that underpins its current ROE of 1.6% and can be scaled as the brand matures.
Risk
The bear case centers on the stark revenue contraction of -22.3% YoY and the ongoing negative free cash flow of -$1.6b, which could force Li Auto to raise capital at unfavorable terms, diluting shareholders. If the EV SUV market stalls or competitors accelerate pricing wars, the thin profit margin of 1% will erode further, and a breach of the low debt ceiling would trigger a credit downgrade, confirming the downside.
Horizon
1-3 yr $18.24 (25-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $31.90 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $57.02 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

LI vs the Top Picks average

PillarLIBook avgDiff
Quality0.290.84-0.55
Growth0.150.84-0.69
Value0.530.78-0.25

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-9.4 over 47 daily scores
From 32.6 (Jun 22) → 23.2 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+10.4%
90-day change+12.3%
Forward EPS estimate$1.14

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect LI to earn is materially higher (+12.3%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
153
Position size
$1,997
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$9.79
25% below $13.05
$ at risk if stopped
$499.16
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Li Auto Inc. (LI): score, valuation & FAQ

Li Auto Inc. (LI) is a Auto Manufacturers company that scores 23.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-), P/S (B+) and PEG (B+), while FCF (F) and Rev (F) rate weaker.

Is LI a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores LI 23.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. That is driven by D/E (A-), P/S (B+) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Li Auto Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does LI score 23.2 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). LI earns its highest marks on D/E (A-), P/S (B+) and PEG (B+), and is held back by FCF (F) and Rev (F). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is LI overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for LI — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in LI?

The bear case centers on the stark revenue contraction of -22.3% YoY and the ongoing negative free cash flow of -$1.6b, which could force Li Auto to raise capital at unfavorable terms, diluting shareholders. If the EV SUV market stalls or competitors accelerate pricing wars, the thin profit margin of 1% will erode further, and a breach of the low debt ceiling would trigger a credit downgrade, confirming the downside.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

More Automotive stocks by score

All Consumer Cyclical rankings →

Analyze another ticker →