Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

LEN analysis

Lennar CorporationResidential Construction. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Housing & Homebuilders
LEN
Lennar Corporation · Residential Construction
FCF$717mC+
Rev-7.4%D
D/E0.29A-
P/E13.7xA-
PEG11.30D
37.7Score
$87.09$21.0B
1Y Target$87.00Analyst consensus · 13 analysts
5Y Target$109.84Compound horizon
10Y Target$140.86Long-dated conviction
FCF$717mTTM
C+
FCF $717m — respectable but not differentiating
Rev-7.4%TTM YoY
D
Revenue -7.4% — meaningful contraction
D/E0.29
A-
D/E 0.29 — less debt than most Consumer Cyclical peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E13.7x
A-
P/E 13.7 — cheaper than most Consumer Cyclical peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG11.30
D
PEG 11.30 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 37.7
Quality0.63
Growth0.38
Value0.23
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
40% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value94% aboveest. fair value ~$45
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~28% a year for the next decade — vs the ~17% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
ROIC10.0% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Residential Construction · market cap $21.0b. Down 40% from 52-week high of $144.24 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue -7% — in contraction; any catalyst that reverses this triggers re-rating. 13 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $87.00 (implying -0% upside).
Moat
Moat signals from the quantitative card are modest — profitability and capital efficiency are middle-of-pack. The thesis here depends on softer factors (switching costs, brand, distribution, regulatory protection) not captured by the quality-growth screen.
Risk
Revenue contracting -7% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Down 40% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Net margin 4.9% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $87.00 (13-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $109.84 at ~5% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $140.86 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

LEN vs the Top Picks average

PillarLENBook avgDiff
Quality0.630.83-0.20
Growth0.380.91-0.53
Value0.230.75-0.52

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.8). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+1.9 over 34 daily scores
From 35.8 (Jun 22) → 37.7 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
22
Position size
$1,916
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$65.32
25% below $87.09
$ at risk if stopped
$479.00
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Lennar Corporation (LEN): score, valuation & FAQ

Lennar Corporation (LEN) is a Residential Construction company that scores 37.7 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-) and P/E (A-), while Rev (D) and PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, LEN sits about 94% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 28% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is LEN a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores LEN 37.7 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. That is driven by D/E (A-) and P/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Lennar Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does LEN score 37.7 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). LEN earns its highest marks on D/E (A-) and P/E (A-), and is held back by Rev (D) and PEG (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is LEN overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $87.09, LEN sits about 94% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 28% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 13.7x× P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in LEN?

Revenue contracting -7% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Down 40% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Net margin 4.9% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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