Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

INGR analysis

Ingredion IncorporatedPackaged Foods. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

INGR
Ingredion Incorporated · Packaged Foods
FCF$355mC
Rev-1.4%D+
D/E0.39A-
P/E11.6xA
PEG1.35B
59.0Score
$106.84$6.7B
1Y Target$121.50Analyst consensus · 6 analysts
5Y Target$153.39Compound horizon
10Y Target$196.72Long-dated conviction
FCF$355mTTM
C
FCF $355m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev-1.4%TTM YoY
D+
Revenue -1.4% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse
D/E0.39
A-
D/E 0.39 — less debt than most Consumer Defensive peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E11.6x
A
P/E 11.6 — cheapest decile in Consumer Defensive (≈10th pctile)
PEG1.35
B
PEG 1.35 — acceptable premium for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 59
Quality70.1
Growth43.0
Value68.4
Why this score
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
18% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value19% belowest. fair value ~$133
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~0% a year for the next decade — vs the ~7% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability21% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC10.8% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Packaged Foods · market cap $6.7b. 18% off the 52-week high of $130.48. 6 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $121.50 (implying +14% upside).
Moat
ROE 13% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere.
Risk
Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.
Horizon
1-3 yr $121.50 (6-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $153.39 at ~8% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $196.72 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

INGR vs the Top Picks average

PillarINGRBook avgDiff
Quality0.700.84-0.14
Growth0.430.84-0.41
Value0.680.78-0.10

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-3.3 over 46 daily scores
From 62.3 (Jun 22) → 59.0 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-1.8%
90-day change-2.2%
Forward EPS estimate$11.35

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect INGR to earn is drifting lower (-2.2%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
18
Position size
$1,923
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$80.13
25% below $106.84
$ at risk if stopped
$480.78
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Ingredion Incorporated (INGR): score, valuation & FAQ

Ingredion Incorporated (INGR) is a Packaged Foods company that scores 59 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A) and D/E (A-), while Rev (D+) rate weaker. On valuation, INGR sits about 19% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 0% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is INGR a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores INGR 59 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/E (A) and D/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Ingredion Incorporated's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does INGR score 59 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). INGR earns its highest marks on P/E (A) and D/E (A-), and is held back by Rev (D+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is INGR overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $106.84, INGR sits about 19% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 0% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 11.6x P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in INGR?

Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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