Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

GEF-B analysis

Greif, Inc.Packaging & Containers. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

GEF-B
Greif, Inc. · Packaging & Containers
FCF$188mC
Rev+4.3%C+
D/E0.39A-
P/E30.7xC
PEG0.67A-
54.3Score
$111.43$4.2B
1Y Target$128.14Model estimate · no analyst coverage
5Y Target$187.62Compound horizon
10Y Target$278.32Long-dated conviction
FCF$188mTTM
C
FCF $188m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+4.3%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +4.3% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E0.39
A-
D/E 0.39 — less debt than most Consumer Cyclical peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E30.7x
C
P/E 30.7 — expensive vs Consumer Cyclical peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG0.67
A-
PEG 0.67 — strong; Lynch's preferred zone

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 54.3
Quality58.9
Growth56.5
Value48.2
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
2% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value6% aboveest. fair value ~$105
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~8% a year for the next decade — vs the ~10% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability16% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC6.8% · C+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Packaging & Containers · market cap $4.2b. Trading near 52-week high of $113.99 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. PEG 0.67 — paying under fair value for the growth rate.
Moat
Moat signals from the quantitative card are modest — profitability and capital efficiency are middle-of-pack. The thesis here depends on softer factors (switching costs, brand, distribution, regulatory protection) not captured by the quality-growth screen.
Risk
Trading within 2% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Trailing P/E 31x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.
Horizon
1-3 yr $128.14 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $187.62 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $278.32 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

GEF-B vs the Top Picks average

PillarGEF-BBook avgDiff
Quality0.590.84-0.25
Growth0.570.84-0.27
Value0.480.78-0.30

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-0.9 over 47 daily scores
From 55.2 (Jun 22) → 54.3 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+2.5%
90-day change+0.3%
Forward EPS estimate$7.03

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect GEF-B to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
17
Position size
$1,894
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$83.57
25% below $111.43
$ at risk if stopped
$473.58
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Greif, Inc. (GEF-B): score, valuation & FAQ

Greif, Inc. (GEF-B) is a Packaging & Containers company that scores 54.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-) and PEG (A-). On valuation, GEF-B sits about 6% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 8% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is GEF-B a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores GEF-B 54.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by D/E (A-) and PEG (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Greif, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does GEF-B score 54.3 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). GEF-B earns its highest marks on D/E (A-) and PEG (A-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is GEF-B overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $111.43, GEF-B sits about 6% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 8% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 30.7x P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in GEF-B?

Trading within 2% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Trailing P/E 31x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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