1Y Target$37.36Near-term target
5Y Target$37.79Compound horizon
10Y Target$48.24Long-dated conviction
FCF$269mTTM · 03/26CFCF $269m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+14.8%TTM YoYB+Revenue +14.8% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E0.79BD/E 0.79 — at market average, manageable
P/E14.9xB+P/E 14.9 — at or below S&P median, reasonable
PEG0.86B+PEG 0.86 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)
Why now
Auto & Truck Dealerships · market cap $2.5b. Down 28% from 52-week high of $39.42 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +15%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.86 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 11 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $37.36 (implying +32% upside).
Moat
Net margin 16% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 58% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 144% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.
Horizon
1-3 yr $37.36 (11-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $37.79 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $48.24 if the moat survives secular pressure.
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