Bull Rankings model

Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE) stock analysis

Oil & Gas Integrated. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
CVE
Cenovus Energy Inc. · Oil & Gas Integrated
55.2Score
$31.39Oct 9 close$57.9B
1Y Target$33.90Model estimate · no analyst coverage
5Y Target$42.80Compound horizon
10Y Target$54.89Long-dated conviction
FCF$5.2bTTM · 06/26
B+
FCF $5.2b — strong cash profile, above most peers · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev-8.6%FY YoY
D
Revenue -8.6% — meaningful contraction · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.34
B+
D/E 0.34 — below the Energy debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E12.1x
B+
P/E 12.1 — below the Energy median (≈40th pctile)
PEG*—
—
PEG n/a — not reported for this company

* PEG n/a — not reported for this company

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 55.2
Quality69.1
Growth43.5
Value65.3
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Diluting shareholders
  • Foreign reporter (CAD)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
8% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value37% belowest. fair value ~$50
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking about 11% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~-5% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Oil & Gas Integrated · market cap $57.9b. 8% off the 52-week high of $34.16. Revenue -9% — in contraction; any catalyst that reverses this triggers re-rating.
Moat
Net margin 12% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 21% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 112% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash.
Risk
Revenue contracting -9% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Commodity exposure — earnings power tracks the price of the underlying commodity, not management execution. A 15-20% move in the commodity reprices the equity well before fundamentals catch up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $33.90 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $42.80 at ~6% CAGR — the dividend has to outrun share dilution. 10 yr $54.89 if the moat survives secular pressure.

CVE vs the Top Picks average

PillarCVEBook avgDiff
Quality6983-14
Growth4489-45
Value6576-11

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
-0.1 over 79 daily scores
From 55.3 (Jun 22) → 55.2 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

CVE at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD55.2/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY69.1GROWTH43.5VALUE65.3Reverse-DCF · Price implies roughly no growth from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$41.9$56.3FAIR-VALUE RANGE$31.4PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$49.9 · price $31.4 is 37% below it.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+82%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$31.4LOW $15.6HIGH $34.2Trading near its 52-week high ($15.6–$34.2).

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+2.7%
90-day change+12.6%
Forward EPS estimate$2.70

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect CVE to earn is materially higher (+12.6%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
63
Position size
$1,978
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$23.54
25% below $31.39
$ at risk if stopped
$494.39
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE): score, valuation & FAQ

Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE) is an Oil & Gas Integrated company that scores 55.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are FCF (B+), D/E (B+) and P/E (B+), while Rev (D) rate weaker. On valuation, CVE sits about 37% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 11% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.

Is CVE a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores CVE 55.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by FCF (B+), D/E (B+) and P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Cenovus Energy Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does CVE score 55.2 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on quality at 69.1 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 43.5 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. CVE earns its highest marks on FCF (B+), D/E (B+) and P/E (B+), and is held back by Rev (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so CVE is measured against Oil & Gas Integrated peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is CVE overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $31.39, CVE sits about 37% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 11% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 12.1x P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in CVE?

Revenue contracting -9% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Commodity exposure — earnings power tracks the price of the underlying commodity, not management execution. A 15-20% move in the commodity reprices the equity well before fundamentals catch up.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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