Cosan S.A. — Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
CSAN
Cosan S.A. · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
FCF$1.0bC+
Rev+11.4%B
D/E1.10C
P/S0.4xA
PEG——
54.5Score
$3.04$3.0B
1Y Target$3.68Analyst consensus · 4 analysts
5Y Target$6.43Compound horizon
10Y Target$11.50Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.0bTTM · 03/26C+
FCF $1.0b — respectable but not differentiating · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+11.4%TTM YoYB
Revenue +11.4% — at or above S&P median
D/E1.10C
D/E 1.10 — more levered than most Energy peers (≈90th pctile)
P/S0.4xA
P/S 0.4x — cheapest decile in Energy (≈10th pctile)
PEG——
PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 54.5
Quality0.46
Growth0.50
Value0.97
Why this score
Cyclical growth
Foreign reporter (BRL)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
49% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value84% belowest. fair value ~$19
What the price assumes: outright free-cash-flow decline for the next decade — vs the ~11% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability10% · Cgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC5.7% · C+return on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · market cap $3.0b. Down 49% from 52-week high of $6.00 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +11%, comfortably above the S&P median. 4 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $3.68 (implying +21% upside).
Moat
Turnaround / out-of-favor name — GAAP-unprofitable for now, so the durability case is forward-looking: it rests on a recovery (margin normalization, a cyclical upturn or restructuring) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than on current reported results.
Risk
Currently unprofitable (margin -18.6%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Down 49% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. ROE -21% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Horizon
1-3 yr $3.68 (4-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $6.43 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $11.50 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
CSAN vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
CSAN
Book avg
Diff
Quality
0.46
0.84
-0.38
Growth
0.50
0.92
-0.42
Value
0.97
0.75
+0.23
Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 82.6). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.
Score history · CSAN
Trend
+20.8 over 35 daily scores
From 33.7 (Jun 22) → 54.5 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
Position sizing · CSAN
$
%
%
Shares to buy
657
Position size
$1,997
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$2.28
25% below $3.04
$ at risk if stopped
$499.32
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
Cosan S.A. (CSAN): score, valuation & FAQ
Cosan S.A. (CSAN) is a Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing company that scores 54.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are P/S (A). On valuation, CSAN sits about 84% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies outright free-cash-flow decline over the next decade.
Is CSAN a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores CSAN 54.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/S (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Cosan S.A.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does CSAN score 54.5 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). CSAN earns its highest marks on P/S (A). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is CSAN overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $3.04, CSAN sits about 84% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies outright free-cash-flow decline over the next decade. Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in CSAN?
Currently unprofitable (margin -18.6%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Down 49% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. ROE -21% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.