COMPARE · Reviewed July 29, 2026
CSAN vs MPC
Verdict: Side-by-side breakdown using the Bull Rankings model. CSAN scored 54.7, MPC scored 52.1 — CSAN leads.
Compare another set
CSAN
Cosan S.A.
54.7
$3.17 · $3.1B
fundamentals as of
Score gap
2.6
CSAN leads
MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation
52.1
$315.57 · $92.1B
fundamentals as of
The model, pillar by pillar (0–100 each)
CSAN
stronger →← stronger
MPC
46
Qualityreturns · margins · balance sheet
77
50
Growthrevenue & earnings expansion
50
98
Valuevaluation vs sector peers
37
CSAN and MPC split the three pillars evenly.
Fundamentals, head-to-head
CSAN
MPC
$1.0bC+
FCF
$5.7bB+
+11.4%B
Rev
-1.7%D+
1.10C+
D/E
1.47C
0.4xA
P/S
—
—
PEG
1.55C+
—
P/E
20.8xC+
Winner per row is the stronger grade in our model; a tie or a missing value shows no highlight.
Valuation · DCF cross-check
CSAN
MPC
83% below
Price vs fair valuelower is cheaper
17% below
decline
Growth the price implies10-yr FCF · lower = less priced in
~-6%/yr
+427%
1-yr DCF upside
+35%
+486%
5-yr DCF upside
+21%
+583%
10-yr DCF upside
+2%
The DCF is a cross-check on intrinsic value, separate from the quality-growth score above.
Model signals
CSAN
Why this score
- Cyclical growth
- Foreign reporter (BRL)
MPC
Why this score
- Buying back stock
- Raising its dividend
- Durable high returns
- Revenue shrinking
The companies
CSANCosan S.A.
Why now
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · market cap $3.1b. Down 47% from 52-week high of $6.00 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +11%, comfortably above the S&P median. 4 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $4.15 (implying +31% upside).
Moat
Turnaround / out-of-favor name — GAAP-unprofitable for now, so the durability case is forward-looking: it rests on a recovery (margin normalization, a cyclical upturn or restructuring) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than on current reported results.
Risk
Currently unprofitable (margin -18.6%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Down 47% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. ROE -21% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
MPCMarathon Petroleum Corporation
Why now
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · market cap $92.1b. 3% off the 52-week high of $326.92. 18 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $303.89 (implying -4% upside).
Moat
ROE 28% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 123% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined. $92.1b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Net margin 3.4% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. Reserve-replacement treadmill — every barrel or ounce extracted has to be replaced through exploration or acquisition; underspending on replacement reserves shows up in production declines 2-3 years out.
Verdict — model-derived comparison
Generating verdict… typically 5–10 seconds
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.