COMPARE · Reviewed August 1, 2026
CSAN vs VLO
Verdict: Side-by-side breakdown using the Bull Rankings model. CSAN scored 54.6, VLO scored 52.8 — CSAN leads.
Compare another set
Different reporting periods. VLO's fundamentals are as of June 2026, but CSAN's are as of December 2024 — a 18-month gap. Growth, margin and valuation figures below therefore describe different windows and aren't strictly like-for-like.
CSAN
Cosan S.A.
54.6
$3.22 · $3.2B
fundamentals as of
Score gap
1.8
CSAN leads
VLO
Valero Energy Corporation
52.8
$312.90 · $90.1B
fundamentals as of
The model, pillar by pillar (0–100 each)
CSAN
stronger →← stronger
VLO
46
Qualityreturns · margins · balance sheet
80
50
Growthrevenue & earnings expansion
50
97
Valuevaluation vs sector peers
37
CSAN and VLO split the three pillars evenly.
Fundamentals, head-to-head
CSAN
VLO
$1.0bC+
FCF
$8.9bB+
+11.4%B
Rev
+12.6%B+
1.10C
D/E
0.40B+
0.4xA
P/S
—
—
PEG
4.08D
—
P/E
13.1xB+
Winner per row is the stronger grade in our model; a tie or a missing value shows no highlight.
Valuation · DCF cross-check
CSAN
VLO
83% below
Price vs fair valuelower is cheaper
46% below
decline
Growth the price implies10-yr FCF · lower = less priced in
~-15%/yr
+423%
1-yr DCF upside
+108%
+482%
5-yr DCF upside
+86%
+578%
10-yr DCF upside
+58%
The DCF is a cross-check on intrinsic value, separate from the quality-growth score above.
Model signals
CSAN
Why this score
- Cyclical growth
- Foreign reporter (BRL)
VLO
Why this score
- Buying back stock
- Raising its dividend
- Cyclical growth
The companies
CSANCosan S.A.
Why now
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · market cap $3.2b. Down 46% from 52-week high of $6.00 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +11%, comfortably above the S&P median. 4 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $3.72 (implying +15% upside).
Moat
Turnaround / out-of-favor name — GAAP-unprofitable for now, so the durability case is forward-looking: it rests on a recovery (margin normalization, a cyclical upturn or restructuring) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than on current reported results.
Risk
Currently unprofitable (margin -18.6%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Down 46% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. ROE -21% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
VLOValero Energy Corporation
Why now
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · market cap $90.1b. Trading near 52-week high of $320.24 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. Revenue growing +13%, comfortably above the S&P median. 18 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $290.22 (implying -7% upside).
Moat
ROE 29% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. FCF converts 123% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined. $90.1b market cap gives the company enough scale to absorb fixed costs that subscale competitors can't, without yet being so large that growth has to come from acquisition.
Risk
Trading within 2% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Hedge-book exposure — many commodity producers hedge forward production; if the hedge book is concentrated at prices well below spot, the upside the market expects is already locked away.
Verdict — model-derived comparison
Generating verdict… typically 5–10 seconds
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.