Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

CVI analysis

CVR Energy, Inc.Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

CVI
CVR Energy, Inc. · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
FCF$351mC
Rev+17.9%B+
D/E2.45D
P/S0.4xA
PEG0.71A-
60.7Score
$34.62$3.5B
1Y Target$29.40Analyst consensus · 5 analysts
5Y Target$51.42Compound horizon
10Y Target$130.40Long-dated conviction
FCF$351mTTM
C
FCF $351m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+17.9%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +17.9% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E2.45
D
D/E 2.45 — most levered decile in Energy (≈95th pctile)
P/S0.4x
A
P/S 0.4x — cheapest decile in Energy (≈10th pctile)
PEG0.71
A-
PEG 0.71 — strong; Lynch's preferred zone

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 60.7
Quality0.63
Growth0.50
Value0.72
Why this score
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
17% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value64% belowest. fair value ~$96
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-10% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability13% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC24.8% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · market cap $3.5b. 17% off the 52-week high of $41.67. Revenue growing +18%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.71 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 5 sell-side analysts rate this an Underperform with a mean 1-yr target of $29.40 (implying -15% upside).
Moat
ROE 13% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income — non-cash charges (depreciation, intangible amortization) are holding down GAAP earnings while cash generation stays strong.
Risk
D/E 2.45 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Net margin 0.8% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. Production-cost sensitivity — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the cycle while marginal producers burn it; watch the cost-per-unit trend, not just headline revenue.
Horizon
1-3 yr $29.40 (5-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $51.42 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $130.40 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Trend
+12.6 over 29 daily scores
From 48.1 (Jun 22) → 60.7 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
57
Position size
$1,973
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$25.96
25% below $34.62
$ at risk if stopped
$493.33
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

CVR Energy, Inc. (CVI): score, valuation & FAQ

CVR Energy, Inc. (CVI) is a Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing company that scores 60.7 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/S (A), PEG (A-) and Rev (B+), while D/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, CVI sits about 64% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -10% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is CVI a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores CVI 60.7 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/S (A), PEG (A-) and Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of CVR Energy, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does CVI score 60.7 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). CVI earns its highest marks on P/S (A), PEG (A-) and Rev (B+), and is held back by D/E (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is CVI overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $34.62, CVI sits about 64% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -10% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in CVI?

D/E 2.45 is elevated — limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing exposure if rates stay higher for longer. Net margin 0.8% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first. Production-cost sensitivity — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the cycle while marginal producers burn it; watch the cost-per-unit trend, not just headline revenue.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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