Bull Rankings model

Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) stock analysis

Oil & Gas E&P. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
CHRD
Chord Energy Corporation · Oil & Gas E&P
60.2Score
$141.54Oct 9 close$7.7B
1Y Target$174.44Analyst consensus · 16 analysts
5Y Target$220.22Compound horizon
10Y Target$282.43Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.2bTTM · 06/26
C+
FCF $1.2b — respectable but not differentiating · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev-7.1%FY YoY
D
Revenue -7.1% — meaningful contraction · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.18
A-
D/E 0.18 — less debt than most Energy peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E9.5x
A-
P/E 9.5 — cheaper than most Energy peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG*—
—
PEG n/a — not reported for this company

* PEG n/a — not reported for this company

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 60.2
Quality72.7
Growth43.5
Value69.1
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Cut its dividend
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
10% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value46% belowest. fair value ~$263
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking about 16% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~-5% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Oil & Gas E&P · market cap $7.7b. 10% off the 52-week high of $157.06. Revenue -7% — in contraction; any catalyst that reverses this triggers re-rating. 16 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $174.44 (implying +23% upside).
Moat
Net margin 14% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 10% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. FCF converts 141% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash.
Risk
Revenue contracting -7% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Production-cost sensitivity — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the cycle while marginal producers burn it; watch the cost-per-unit trend, not just headline revenue.
Horizon
1-3 yr $174.44 (16-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $220.22 at ~9% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $282.43 if the moat survives secular pressure.

CHRD vs the Top Picks average

PillarCHRDBook avgDiff
Quality7383-10
Growth4489-45
Value6976-7

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
+15.6 over 82 daily scores
From 44.6 (Jun 22) → 60.2 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

CHRD at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD60.2/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY72.7GROWTH43.5VALUE69.1Reverse-DCF · Price implies an outright decline from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$224$295FAIR-VALUE RANGE$142PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$263 · price $142 is 46% below it.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+57%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$142LOW $84.3HIGH $157Trading at the 79th percentile of its 52-week range ($84.3–$157).

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+18.0%
90-day change+16.9%
Forward EPS estimate$16.70

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect CHRD to earn is materially higher (+16.9%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
14
Position size
$1,982
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$106.16
25% below $141.54
$ at risk if stopped
$495.39
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD): score, valuation & FAQ

Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) is an Oil & Gas E&P company that scores 60.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-) and P/E (A-), while Rev (D) rate weaker. On valuation, CHRD sits about 46% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 16% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.

Is CHRD a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores CHRD 60.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by D/E (A-) and P/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Chord Energy Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does CHRD score 60.2 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on quality at 72.7 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 43.5 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. CHRD earns its highest marks on D/E (A-) and P/E (A-), and is held back by Rev (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so CHRD is measured against Oil & Gas E&P peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is CHRD overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $141.54, CHRD sits about 46% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 16% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 9.5x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in CHRD?

Revenue contracting -7% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Production-cost sensitivity — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the cycle while marginal producers burn it; watch the cost-per-unit trend, not just headline revenue.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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