Bull Rankings model

EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) stock analysis

Oil & Gas E&P. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
EOG
EOG Resources, Inc. · Oil & Gas E&P
60.8Score
$148.16Oct 9 close$77.7B
1Y Target$164.21Analyst consensus · 28 analysts
5Y Target$207.32Compound horizon
10Y Target$265.88Long-dated conviction
FCF$6.6bTTM · 06/26
B+
FCF $6.6b — strong cash profile, above most peers · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev-3.4%FY YoY
D+
Revenue -3.4% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.26
A-
D/E 0.26 — less debt than most Energy peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E11.5x
B+
P/E 11.5 — below the Energy median (≈40th pctile)
PEG1.31
B
PEG 1.31 — acceptable premium for growth

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 60.8
Quality92.1
Growth42.0
Value58.0
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Raising its dividend
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
4% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value6% belowest. fair value ~$158
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking about 2% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~-3% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Oil & Gas E&P · market cap $77.7b. 4% off the 52-week high of $154.16. 28 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $164.21 (implying +11% upside).
Moat
Net margin 26% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 23% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 96% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash.
Risk
Commodity exposure — earnings power tracks the price of the underlying commodity, not management execution. A 15-20% move in the commodity reprices the equity well before fundamentals catch up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $164.21 (28-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $207.32 at ~7% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $265.88 if the moat survives secular pressure.

EOG vs the Top Picks average

PillarEOGBook avgDiff
Quality9283+9
Growth4289-47
Value5876-18

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
-0.4 over 82 daily scores
From 61.2 (Jun 22) → 60.8 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

EOG at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD60.8/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY92.1GROWTH42.0VALUE58.0Reverse-DCF · Price implies roughly no growth from here.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$148LOW $102HIGH $154Trading near its 52-week high ($102–$154).
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$139$174FAIR-VALUE RANGE$148PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$158 · price $148 is 6% below it.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+37%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+7.0%
90-day change+5.1%
Forward EPS estimate$15.41

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect EOG to earn is materially higher (+5.1%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
13
Position size
$1,926
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$111.12
25% below $148.16
$ at risk if stopped
$481.52
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG): score, valuation & FAQ

EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) is an Oil & Gas E&P company that scores 60.8 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-), FCF (B+) and P/E (B+), while Rev (D+) rate weaker. On valuation, EOG sits about 6% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 2% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.

Is EOG a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores EOG 60.8 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by D/E (A-), FCF (B+) and P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of EOG Resources, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does EOG score 60.8 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on quality at 92.1 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 42.0 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. EOG earns its highest marks on D/E (A-), FCF (B+) and P/E (B+), and is held back by Rev (D+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so EOG is measured against Oil & Gas E&P peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is EOG overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $148.16, EOG sits about 6% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 2% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at an 11.5x P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in EOG?

Commodity exposure — earnings power tracks the price of the underlying commodity, not management execution. A 15-20% move in the commodity reprices the equity well before fundamentals catch up.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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