Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) stock analysis
Oil & Gas E&P. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
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MGY
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation · Oil & Gas E&P
58.0Score
$24.10Oct 9 close$6.6B
1Y Target$33.24Analyst consensus · 17 analysts
5Y Target$41.96Compound horizon
10Y Target$53.81Long-dated conviction
FCF$546mTTM · 06/26C+
FCF $546m — respectable but not differentiating · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+11.4%TTM YoYB
Revenue +11.4% — at or above S&P median · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E0.19A-
D/E 0.19 — less debt than most Energy peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E10.8xB+
P/E 10.8 — below the Energy median (≈40th pctile)
PEG4.26est.D
PEG 4.26 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios · PEG derived: P/E ÷ analysts' expected EPS growth for next year, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. When earnings are expected to dip this year, the growth used is the yearly average over this year and next, so a recovery isn't counted as growth.
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 58
Quality90.5
Growth50.0
Value43.1
Why this score
Raising its dividend
Durable high returns
Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
26% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value42% belowest. fair value ~$42
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking about 5% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~11% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
ROIC17.5% · A-return on invested capital — leads the quality score
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Oil & Gas E&P · market cap $6.6b. Down 26% from 52-week high of $32.76 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +11%, comfortably above the S&P median. 17 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $33.24 (implying +38% upside).
Moat
Net margin 29% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 20% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 128% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash.
Risk
Hedge-book exposure — many commodity producers hedge forward production; if the hedge book is concentrated at prices well below spot, the upside the market expects is already locked away.
Horizon
1-3 yr $33.24 (17-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $41.96 at ~12% CAGR — dividend compounding plus earnings growth. 10 yr $53.81 if the moat survives secular pressure.
MGY vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
MGY
Book avg
Diff
Quality
91
83
+8
Growth
50
89
-39
Value
43
76
-33
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · MGY
Trend
-0.4 over 82 daily scores
From 58.4 (Jun 22) → 58.0 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
MGY at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
-8.1%
90-day change
-15.5%
Forward EPS estimate
$2.99
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect MGY to earn is materially lower (-15.5%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
A fiscal-year roll fell inside this window: the forward horizon moved on to the next financial year, which shifts the earnings figure without any analyst changing their view. That step is excluded, so the number above covers the rest of the window rather than all of it.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · MGY
$
%
%
Shares to buy
82
Position size
$1,976
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$18.08
25% below $24.10
$ at risk if stopped
$494.05
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY): score, valuation & FAQ
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) is an Oil & Gas E&P company that scores 58 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-) and P/E (B+), while PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, MGY sits about 42% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 5% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.
Is MGY a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores MGY 58 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by D/E (A-) and P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does MGY score 58 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on quality at 90.5 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 43.1 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. MGY earns its highest marks on D/E (A-) and P/E (B+), and is held back by PEG (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so MGY is measured against Oil & Gas E&P peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is MGY overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $24.10, MGY sits about 42% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 5% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 10.8x P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in MGY?
Hedge-book exposure — many commodity producers hedge forward production; if the hedge book is concentrated at prices well below spot, the upside the market expects is already locked away.