Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation — Oil & Gas E&P. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
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MGY
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation · Oil & Gas E&P
FCF$546mC+
Rev+11.4%B
D/E0.19A-
P/E11.5xB+
PEG——
65.5Score
$26.36$6.4B
1Y Target$32.47Analyst consensus · 17 analysts
5Y Target$40.99Compound horizon
10Y Target$52.57Long-dated conviction
FCF$546mTTM · 06/26C+
FCF $546m — respectable but not differentiating · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 06/26).
Rev+11.4%TTM YoYB
Revenue +11.4% — at or above S&P median
D/E0.19A-
D/E 0.19 — less debt than most Energy peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E11.5xB+
P/E 11.5 — below the Energy median (≈40th pctile)
PEG——
PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 65.5
Quality90.7
Growth50.0
Value61.8
Why this score
Raising its dividend
Durable high returns
Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
20% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value48% belowest. fair value ~$50
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-8% a year for the next decade — vs the ~10% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
ROIC17.5% · A-return on invested capital — not score-weighted
Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.
Why now
Oil & Gas E&P · market cap $6.4b. 20% off the 52-week high of $32.76. Revenue growing +11%, comfortably above the S&P median. 17 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $32.47 (implying +23% upside).
Moat
Net margin 29% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 20% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 128% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Hedge-book exposure — many commodity producers hedge forward production; if the hedge book is concentrated at prices well below spot, the upside the market expects is already locked away.
Horizon
1-3 yr $32.47 (17-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $40.99 at ~9% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $52.57 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
MGY vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
MGY
Book avg
Diff
Quality
0.91
0.84
+0.06
Growth
0.50
0.92
-0.42
Value
0.62
0.75
-0.13
Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 82.9). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.
Score history · MGY
Trend
+7.1 over 40 daily scores
From 58.4 (Jun 22) → 65.5 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
Position sizing · MGY
$
%
%
Shares to buy
75
Position size
$1,977
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$19.77
25% below $26.36
$ at risk if stopped
$494.25
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY): score, valuation & FAQ
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY) is a Oil & Gas E&P company that scores 65.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-) and P/E (B+). On valuation, MGY sits about 48% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -8% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is MGY a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores MGY 65.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by D/E (A-) and P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does MGY score 65.5 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). MGY earns its highest marks on D/E (A-) and P/E (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is MGY overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $26.36, MGY sits about 48% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -8% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 11.5x× P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in MGY?
Hedge-book exposure — many commodity producers hedge forward production; if the hedge book is concentrated at prices well below spot, the upside the market expects is already locked away.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.