Gold. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
CGAU
Centerra Gold Inc. · Gold
54.2Score
$22.54Oct 9 close$4.4B
1Y Target$24.34Model estimate · no analyst coverage
5Y Target$30.73Compound horizon
10Y Target$39.41Long-dated conviction
FCF$94mTTM · 06/26C-
FCF $94m — barely positive; fragile cash position · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+14.0%FY YoYB+
Revenue +14.0% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.02A-
D/E 0.02 — less debt than most Basic Materials peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E7.2xA
P/E 7.2 — cheapest decile in Basic Materials (≈10th pctile)
PEG0.37est.A
PEG 0.37 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth · PEG derived: P/E ÷ analysts' expected EPS growth for next year, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. When earnings are expected to dip this year, the growth used is the yearly average over this year and next, so a recovery isn't counted as growth.
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 54.2
Quality60.1
Growth50.0
Value52.9
Why this score
Buying back stock
Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
8% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value263% aboveest. fair value ~$6
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 47% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~16% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Gold · market cap $4.4b. 8% off the 52-week high of $24.52. Revenue growing +14%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.37 — paying under fair value for the growth rate.
Moat
Net margin 37% is exceptional — pricing-power territory rare outside premium software, branded staples, and specialty pharma. ROE 33% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which. Mining moat is reserve quality + extraction cost per unit — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the commodity cycle while marginal producers burn it.
Risk
Beta 1.60 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Jurisdictional + permitting risk — mining and extraction operations concentrate exposure to political stability, royalty regimes, and environmental review timelines that can stall production for years.
Horizon
1-3 yr $24.34 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $30.73 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $39.41 if the moat survives secular pressure.
CGAU vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
CGAU
Book avg
Diff
Quality
60
83
-23
Growth
50
89
-39
Value
53
76
-23
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · CGAU
Trend
-16.0 over 82 daily scores
From 70.2 (Jun 22) → 54.2 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
CGAU at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
-1.0%
90-day change
-5.0%
Forward EPS estimate
$1.91
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect CGAU to earn is drifting lower (-5.0%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · CGAU
$
%
%
Shares to buy
88
Position size
$1,984
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$16.91
25% below $22.54
$ at risk if stopped
$495.88
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU): score, valuation & FAQ
Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) is a Gold company that scores 54.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A), PEG (A) and D/E (A-), while FCF (C-) rate weaker. On valuation, CGAU sits about 263% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 47% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.
Is CGAU a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores CGAU 54.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/E (A), PEG (A) and D/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Centerra Gold Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does CGAU score 54.2 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on quality at 60.1 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 50.0 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. CGAU earns its highest marks on P/E (A), PEG (A) and D/E (A-), and is held back by FCF (C-). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so CGAU is measured against Gold peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is CGAU overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $22.54, CGAU sits about 263% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 47% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 7.2x P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in CGAU?
Beta 1.60 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return. Jurisdictional + permitting risk — mining and extraction operations concentrate exposure to political stability, royalty regimes, and environmental review timelines that can stall production for years.