Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

CGAU analysis

Centerra Gold Inc.Gold. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

CGAU
Centerra Gold Inc. · Gold
FCF$160mC
Rev+28.8%A-
D/E0.02A
P/E7.6xA
PEG0.41A
57.0Score
$23.75$4.6B
1Y Target$25.65Model estimate · no analyst coverage
5Y Target$32.38Compound horizon
10Y Target$41.53Long-dated conviction
FCF$160mTTM
C
FCF $160m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+28.8%TTM YoY
A-
Revenue +28.8% — strong growth, well above S&P median (~7%)
D/E0.02
A
D/E 0.02 — least levered decile in Basic Materials (≈10th pctile)
P/E7.6x
A
P/E 7.6 — cheapest decile in Basic Materials (≈10th pctile)
PEG0.41est.
A
PEG 0.41 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth · PEG derived: P/E ÷ forward 1-year analyst EPS growth, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. Same earnings-growth basis as the reported figure on other rows.

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 57
Quality48.6
Growth50.0
Value76.4
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
2% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value106% aboveest. fair value ~$12
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~31% a year for the next decade — vs the ~18% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
ROIC0.8% · Creturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Gold · market cap $4.6b. Trading near 52-week high of $24.16 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. Revenue growing +29% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.41 — paying under fair value for the growth rate.
Moat
Mining moat is reserve quality + extraction cost per unit — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the commodity cycle while marginal producers burn it.
Risk
Currently unprofitable (margin -7.4%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Trading within 2% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Beta 1.56 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Horizon
1-3 yr $25.65 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $32.38 at ~6% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $41.53 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

CGAU vs the Top Picks average

PillarCGAUBook avgDiff
Quality0.490.84-0.35
Growth0.500.84-0.34
Value0.760.78in line

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-13.2 over 47 daily scores
From 70.2 (Jun 22) → 57.0 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-4.5%
90-day change-9.0%
Forward EPS estimate$1.93

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect CGAU to earn is materially lower (-9.0%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
84
Position size
$1,995
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$17.81
25% below $23.75
$ at risk if stopped
$498.75
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU): score, valuation & FAQ

Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) is a Gold company that scores 57 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A), P/E (A) and PEG (A). On valuation, CGAU sits about 106% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 31% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is CGAU a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores CGAU 57 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by D/E (A), P/E (A) and PEG (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Centerra Gold Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does CGAU score 57 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). CGAU earns its highest marks on D/E (A), P/E (A) and PEG (A). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is CGAU overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $23.75, CGAU sits about 106% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 31% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 7.6x P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in CGAU?

Currently unprofitable (margin -7.4%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk. Trading within 2% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Beta 1.56 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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