Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

CENX analysis

Century Aluminum CompanyAluminum. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.

CENX
Century Aluminum Company · Aluminum
FCF$27mC-
Rev+13.9%B+
D/E0.42B
P/E13.3xA-
PEG0.06A
63.2Score
$45.11$4.5B
1Y Target$74.67Analyst consensus · 3 analysts
5Y Target$109.32Compound horizon
10Y Target$162.17Long-dated conviction
FCF$27mTTM
C-
FCF $27m — barely positive; fragile cash position
Rev+13.9%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +13.9% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E0.42
B
D/E 0.42 — near the Basic Materials debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E13.3x
A-
P/E 13.3 — cheaper than most Basic Materials peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG0.06
A
PEG 0.06 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 63.2
Quality0.68
Growth0.50
Value0.75
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
36% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value1115% aboveest. fair value ~$4
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability12% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC22.8% · Areturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Aluminum · market cap $4.5b. Down 36% from 52-week high of $70.43 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +14%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.06 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 3 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $74.67 (implying +66% upside).
Moat
Net margin 14% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 30% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
Down 36% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.97 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Horizon
1-3 yr $74.67 (3-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $109.32 at ~19% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $162.17 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Shares to buy
44
Position size
$1,985
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$33.83
25% below $45.11
$ at risk if stopped
$496.21
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Century Aluminum Company (CENX): score, valuation & FAQ

Century Aluminum Company (CENX) is a Aluminum company that scores 63.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A), P/E (A-) and Rev (B+), while FCF (C-) rate weaker. On valuation, CENX sits about 1115% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value (i.e. the DCF flags it as rich).

Is CENX a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores CENX 63.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by PEG (A), P/E (A-) and Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Century Aluminum Company's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does CENX score 63.2 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). CENX earns its highest marks on PEG (A), P/E (A-) and Rev (B+), and is held back by FCF (C-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is CENX overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $45.11, CENX sits about 1115% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value (i.e. the DCF flags it as rich). It trades at a 13.3x× P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in CENX?

Down 36% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 1.97 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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