Bull Rankings model

Century Aluminum Company (CENX) stock analysis

Aluminum. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
CENX
Century Aluminum Company · Aluminum
62.2Score
$36.76Oct 9 close$3.6B
1Y Target$65.25Analyst consensus · 4 analysts
5Y Target$82.38Compound horizon
10Y Target$105.65Long-dated conviction
FCF$151mTTM · 06/26
C
FCF $151m — modest; watch for margin expansion · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+13.9%FY YoY
B+
Revenue +13.9% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.31
B
D/E 0.31 — near the Basic Materials debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E6.3x
A
P/E 6.3 — cheapest decile in Basic Materials (≈10th pctile)
PEG0.06
A
PEG 0.06 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 62.2
Quality71.2
Growth50.0
Value67.6
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
48% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value111% aboveest. fair value ~$17
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 30% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~14% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Aluminum · market cap $3.6b. Down 48% from 52-week high of $70.43 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +14%, comfortably above the S&P median. PEG 0.06 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 4 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $65.25 (implying +78% upside).
Moat
Net margin 23% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 52% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
Down 48% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 2.08 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.
Horizon
1-3 yr $65.25 (4-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $82.38 at ~18% CAGR — earnings growth has to outrun share dilution. 10 yr $105.65 if the moat survives secular pressure.

CENX vs the Top Picks average

PillarCENXBook avgDiff
Quality7183-12
Growth5089-39
Value6876-8

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
-1.4 over 82 daily scores
From 63.6 (Jun 22) → 62.2 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

CENX at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD62.2/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY71.2GROWTH50.0VALUE67.6Reverse-DCF · Price implies ~30% growth a year from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$15.4$20.5FAIR-VALUE RANGE$36.8PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$17.4 · price $36.8 is 111% above it.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+20%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$36.8LOW $25.4HIGH $70.4Trading at the 25th percentile of its 52-week range ($25.4–$70.4).

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-2.9%
90-day change-3.4%
Forward EPS estimate$11.72

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect CENX to earn is drifting lower (-3.4%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A fiscal-year roll fell inside this window: the forward horizon moved on to the next financial year, which shifts the earnings figure without any analyst changing their view. That step is excluded, so the number above covers the rest of the window rather than all of it.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
54
Position size
$1,985
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$27.57
25% below $36.76
$ at risk if stopped
$496.26
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Century Aluminum Company (CENX): score, valuation & FAQ

Century Aluminum Company (CENX) is an Aluminum company that scores 62.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A), PEG (A) and Rev (B+). On valuation, CENX sits about 111% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 30% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.

Is CENX a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores CENX 62.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/E (A), PEG (A) and Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Century Aluminum Company's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does CENX score 62.2 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on quality at 71.2 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 50.0 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. CENX earns its highest marks on P/E (A), PEG (A) and Rev (B+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so CENX is measured against Aluminum peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is CENX overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $36.76, CENX sits about 111% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 30% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 6.3x P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in CENX?

Down 48% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Beta 2.08 implies above-market volatility — position-size to the drawdowns this name will produce in a market correction, not to its bull-case return.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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