Bull Rankings model

Central Garden & Pet Company (CENTA) stock analysis

Packaged Foods. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
CENTA
Central Garden & Pet Company · Packaged Foods
51.3Score
$35.00Oct 9 close$2.2B
1Y Target$46.25Analyst consensus · 4 analysts
5Y Target$58.39Compound horizon
10Y Target$74.88Long-dated conviction
FCF$346mTTM · 06/26
C
FCF $346m — modest; watch for margin expansion · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev-2.2%FY YoY
D+
Revenue -2.2% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.81
B
D/E 0.81 — near the Consumer Defensive debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E13.0x
A-
P/E 13.0 — cheaper than most Consumer Defensive peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG1.87
C+
PEG 1.87 — modest premium; above fair value

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 51.3
Quality60.0
Growth30.3
Value74.5
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
14% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value70% belowest. fair value ~$118
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking about 23% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~3% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Packaged Foods · market cap $2.2b. 14% off the 52-week high of $40.80. 4 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $46.25 (implying +32% upside).
Moat
Free cash flow runs well ahead of reported net income.
Risk
Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.
Horizon
1-3 yr $46.25 (4-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $58.39 at ~11% CAGR — buyback-driven per-share compounding. 10 yr $74.88 if the moat survives secular pressure.

CENTA vs the Top Picks average

PillarCENTABook avgDiff
Quality6083-23
Growth3089-59
Value7476-2

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
-1.0 over 82 daily scores
From 52.3 (Jun 22) → 51.3 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

CENTA at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD51.3/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY60.0GROWTH30.3VALUE74.5Reverse-DCF · Price implies an outright decline from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$116–$120FAIR-VALUE RANGE$35PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$118 · price $35 is 70% below it.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+31%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$35LOW $26HIGH $40.8Trading at the 61st percentile of its 52-week range ($26–$40.8).

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-2.1%
90-day change-0.9%
Forward EPS estimate$3.06

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect CENTA to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
57
Position size
$1,995
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$26.25
25% below $35.00
$ at risk if stopped
$498.75
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Central Garden & Pet Company (CENTA): score, valuation & FAQ

Central Garden & Pet Company (CENTA) is a Packaged Foods company that scores 51.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A-), while Rev (D+) rate weaker. On valuation, CENTA sits about 70% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 23% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.

Is CENTA a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores CENTA 51.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Central Garden & Pet Company's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does CENTA score 51.3 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on value at 74.5 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 30.3 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. CENTA earns its highest marks on P/E (A-), and is held back by Rev (D+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so CENTA is measured against Packaged Foods peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is CENTA overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $35.00, CENTA sits about 70% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 23% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 13.0x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in CENTA?

Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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