Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

BIRK analysis

Birkenstock Holding plcFootwear & Accessories. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

BIRK
Birkenstock Holding plc · Footwear & Accessories
FCF$357mC
Rev+14.7%B+
D/E0.48B+
P/E16.9xB+
PEG1.12B+
66.5Score
$37.48$6.9B
1Y Target$52.29Analyst consensus · 21 analysts
5Y Target$76.56Compound horizon
10Y Target$113.57Long-dated conviction
FCF$357mTTM · 03/26
C
FCF $357m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).
Rev+14.7%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +14.7% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E0.48
B+
D/E 0.48 — below the Consumer Cyclical debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E16.9x
B+
P/E 16.9 — below the Consumer Cyclical median (≈40th pctile)
PEG1.12
B+
PEG 1.12 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 66.5
Quality0.64
Growth0.94
Value0.57
Why this score
  • Diluting shareholders
  • Short track record
  • Foreign reporter (EUR)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
30% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value9% aboveest. fair value ~$34
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~15% a year for the next decade — vs the ~21% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability25% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC9.7% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Footwear & Accessories · market cap $6.9b. Down 30% from 52-week high of $53.53 — deep drawdown territory. Revenue growing +15%, comfortably above the S&P median. 21 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $52.29 (implying +40% upside).
Moat
Net margin 18% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 14% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $52.29 (21-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $76.56 at ~15% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $113.57 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

BIRK vs the Top Picks average

PillarBIRKBook avgDiff
Quality0.640.84-0.20
Growth0.940.92+0.02
Value0.570.75-0.18

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 82.6). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+4.6 over 36 daily scores
From 61.9 (Jun 22) → 66.5 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
53
Position size
$1,986
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$28.11
25% below $37.48
$ at risk if stopped
$496.61
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK): score, valuation & FAQ

Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) is a Footwear & Accessories company that scores 66.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (B+), D/E (B+) and P/E (B+). On valuation, BIRK sits about 9% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 15% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is BIRK a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores BIRK 66.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by Rev (B+), D/E (B+) and P/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Birkenstock Holding plc's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does BIRK score 66.5 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). BIRK earns its highest marks on Rev (B+), D/E (B+) and P/E (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is BIRK overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $37.48, BIRK sits about 9% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 15% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 16.9x× P/E (graded B+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in BIRK?

Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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