ONON — On Holding AG · The Bull Rankings

★

ONON

On Holding AG · Footwear & Accessories

FCF$396mC

Rev+30.0%A

D/E0.29A-

P/E20.3xB

PEG0.59A-

74.9Score

$30.02$10.0B

1Y Target$45.56Analyst consensus · 27 analysts

5Y Target$57.51Compound horizon

10Y Target$73.76Long-dated conviction

FCF$396mTTM · 03/26

FCF $396m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 03/26).

Rev+30.0%TTM YoY

Revenue +30.0% — hypergrowth, top decile

D/E0.29

A-

D/E 0.29 — less debt than most Consumer Cyclical peers (≈25th pctile)

P/E20.3x

P/E 20.3 — near the Consumer Cyclical median (≈60th pctile)

PEG0.59

A-

PEG 0.59 — strong; Lynch's preferred zone

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 74.9

Quality71.0

Growth95.8

Value72.2

Why this score

Durable high returns
Diluting shareholders
Foreign reporter (CHF)

Entry · Margin of safety

52-week rangeNear 52-week low

41% off the 12-month high

vs DCF fair value112% aboveest. fair value ~$14

What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~33% a year for the next decade — vs the ~19% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.

Quality signals · context only

Gross profitability67% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)

ROIC18.2% · A-return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now

On’s 30% revenue growth is the single most compelling reason to own this name: no other growth footwear brand is compounding at this rate while selling across six performance categories, from running to tennis to outdoor. The 6.8% profit margin—despite a $388m TTM free-cash-flow haul—proves the model scales, and the 12.5% ROE (our model’s strongest pillar at 71/100) shows capital efficiency that compounds into shareholder returns. The crux is simple: On is the only performance sports brand with a runway to expand both product breadth and geographic reach without diluting returns.

Moat

On’s moat is built on category leadership in performance running soles, where the CloudTec cushioning system delivers measurable energy return that competitors can’t replicate in under two years. The company’s direct-to-consumer network—spanning owned retail stores and e-commerce—locks in high-margin repeat buyers, while its wholesale partnerships with run specialty and outdoor retailers create a distribution moat that’s sticky for athletes. ROE of 12.5% isn’t just pricing power; it’s the result of pricing premiums on patented sole tech and a 30% revenue growth rate that outpaces category peers by 15 percentage points.

Risk

The 41.5x P/E is the bear case in one number: it embeds the assumption that On can sustain 30% growth forever, which history says is impossible for any footwear brand. The 2.12 beta amplifies the downside in a macro slowdown, and the 0.31 debt-to-equity is low but rising as the company funds growth—leaving little cushion if margins compress. The concrete signal that would break the bull thesis is a single quarter of revenue growth below 20% paired with a P/E re-rating to 30x.

Horizon

1-3 yr $45.56 (27-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $57.51 at ~14% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $73.76 if the moat survives secular pressure.

Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

ONON vs the Top Picks average

Pillar	ONON	Book avg	Diff
Quality	0.71	0.84	-0.13
Growth	0.96	0.84	+0.12
Value	0.72	0.78	-0.06

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Score history · ONON

Trend

+5.6 over 47 daily scores

From 69.3 (Jun 22) → 74.9 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change	-1.9%
90-day change	-4.0%
Forward EPS estimate	$2.10

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect ONON to earn is drifting lower (-4.0%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Position sizing · ONON

Portfolio

Risk per trade

Stop loss below entry

Shares to buy

Position size

$1,981

4.0% of portfolio

Stop price

$22.52

25% below $30.02

$ at risk if stopped

$495.33

budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

The Bull Rankings deep dive

Generated by the Bull Rankings model from current fundamentals and checked against the figures shown · rewritten weekly · updated August 3, 2026 · fundamentals as of Dec 31, 2025. Not investment advice. How we source & verify every figure →

The Bull Rankings scorecard — our quality-growth score is 73.2 / 100, built from three pillars each graded 0–100 against sector peers: Quality 71, Growth 100, Value 65. At today's price, our reverse-DCF read says the market is implicitly betting on about 41% a year in free-cash-flow growth sustained for a decade — a gauge of how much optimism is already in the stock.

The thesis

ONON is a high‑growth premium brand that is already priced for a 41% annual free‑cash‑flow expansion. The reverse‑DCF in our Bull Rankings model forces that assumption against a 30% FY revenue growth and a 6.8% profit margin. With a forward P/E of 41.3 and a PEG of 0.71, the market is demanding growth far beyond the historical trend. In short, the stock is over‑optimistic; the price leaves little upside unless the company can accelerate cash‑flow generation to the model’s 41% target.

What the business actually is

On Holding AG designs, manufactures and sells performance sports products under the On brand. Its catalogue spans athletic footwear, apparel and accessories for categories such as performance running, performance outdoor, performance all‑day, performance training, performance tennis and young movers. The company reaches athletes and active consumers through a mix of wholesale partners (run specialty, general sporting goods, outdoor, luxury, street‑fashion and lifestyle retailers), owned retail stores, and e‑commerce platforms. The running‑shoe segment remains the core growth engine, feeding both direct‑to‑consumer and wholesale channels worldwide.

Why it can (or can’t) keep compounding

Our model flags Durable high returns as the strongest signal, and that stems from a ROE of 12.5% paired with a profit margin of 6.8%. Those figures show the business can turn sales into earnings efficiently, a rare trait in a sector where many peers run thin margins. The moat is brand‑driven: On’s patented CloudTec® cushioning and distinctive “cloud” aesthetic have cultivated a loyal following among performance runners, making it costly for rivals to win over its core fan base quickly. The debt‑to‑equity of 0.31 gives the firm financial flexibility to fund inventory and expand its retail footprint without over‑leveraging. Combined, these attributes support the notion that the company can sustain its growth trajectory, provided it continues to innovate and protect its design IP.

The valuation question

At the quarter ended 2025‑12‑31, ONON trades at a P/E of 41.3 and a P/S of 3.3. The Bull Rankings reverse‑DCF tells us the current price embeds a 41% annual free‑cash‑flow growth rate for ten years. That is a full 11 percentage‑point premium over the reported 30% FY revenue growth. The PEG of 0.71 suggests the market is already discounting the growth premium, yet the implied cash‑flow acceleration is still far steeper than the historical revenue trajectory. In other words, the valuation is optimistic: investors are betting that margins will expand, capex will stay modest, and the free‑cash‑flow conversion will improve dramatically. The analyst consensus 1‑yr target of $52.31 (a 38% upside from today’s $37.95) presumes the company can meet that aggressive cash‑flow pace. If free‑cash‑flow growth stalls at the 30% revenue rate, the stock is materially overvalued.

The bear case

The weakest pillar in our model is Value, scoring only 65. The high beta of 2.12 amplifies downside risk; a market correction would punish ONON more than the sector average. Moreover, the “Diluting shareholders” signal warns that equity issuance could erode per‑share metrics. If the company needs to fund inventory or expansion by issuing new shares, the $12.6 b market cap could be spread thinner, pressuring the P/E further. A concrete trigger would be a new share offering that pushes the debt‑to‑equity above its current 0.31 threshold, indicating a shift toward leverage and dilution.

What would change our mind

First, a free‑cash‑flow growth rate of 40%+ sustained for a full year would validate the reverse‑DCF premise and justify the premium multiple. Second, a margin expansion to double‑digit levels (e.g., profit margin climbing above 12%) would show the company can convert revenue into cash more efficiently, tightening the value pillar. Third, any significant share repurchase that reverses the dilution signal would lift the Value score and reduce the beta‑adjusted risk. Until one of those metrics materializes, the price remains stretched against the fundamentals.

On Holding AG (ONON): score, valuation & FAQ

On Holding AG (ONON) is a Footwear & Accessories company that scores 74.9 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A), D/E (A-) and PEG (A-). On valuation, ONON sits about 112% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 33% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is ONON a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores ONON 74.9 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by Rev (A), D/E (A-) and PEG (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of On Holding AG's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does ONON score 74.9 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). ONON earns its highest marks on Rev (A), D/E (A-) and PEG (A-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is ONON overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $30.02, ONON sits about 112% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 33% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 20.3x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in ONON?

The 41.5x P/E is the bear case in one number: it embeds the assumption that On can sustain 30% growth forever, which history says is impossible for any footwear brand. The 2.12 beta amplifies the downside in a macro slowdown, and the 0.31 debt-to-equity is low but rising as the company funds growth—leaving little cushion if margins compress. The concrete signal that would break the bull thesis is a single quarter of revenue growth below 20% paired with a P/E re-rating to 30x.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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