Bull Rankings model

Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) stock analysis

Footwear & Accessories. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
SHOO
Steven Madden, Ltd. · Footwear & Accessories
67.7Score
$44.30Oct 9 close$3.2B
1Y Target$52.40Analyst consensus · 10 analysts
5Y Target$76.72Compound horizon
10Y Target$113.81Long-dated conviction
FCF$224mTTM · 06/26
C
FCF $224m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.
Rev+18.2%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +18.2% — above sector median, healthy trajectory · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E0.39
A-
D/E 0.39 — less debt than most Consumer Cyclical peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E22.1x
C+
P/E 22.1 — above the Consumer Cyclical median (≈75th pctile)
PEG2.17
C
PEG 2.17 — expensive relative to growth rate

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 67.7
Quality70.4
Growth89.7
Value49.2
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
11% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value18% belowest. fair value ~$54
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 6% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~18% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability69% · Agross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC15.3% · A-return on invested capital — leads the quality score

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Footwear & Accessories · market cap $3.2b. 11% off the 52-week high of $49.70. Revenue growing +18%, comfortably above the S&P median. 10 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $52.40 (implying +18% upside).
Moat
ROE 15% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 157% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $52.40 (10-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $76.72 at ~12% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $113.81 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.

SHOO vs the Top Picks average

PillarSHOOBook avgDiff
Quality7083-13
Growth9089in line
Value4976-27

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
+24.3 over 82 daily scores
From 43.4 (Jun 22) → 67.7 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

SHOO at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD67.7/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY70.4GROWTH89.7VALUE49.2Reverse-DCF · Price implies ~6% growth a year from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$45.4$69.9FAIR-VALUE RANGE$44.3PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$54.2 · price $44.3 is 18% below it.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock+37%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.
WHERE THIS SCORE SITS0255075100SHOO 67.7Top 13% of 1,709 companies on the quality-growth score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.0%
90-day change+2.9%
Forward EPS estimate$2.78

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect SHOO to earn is drifting higher (+2.9%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
45
Position size
$1,993
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$33.22
25% below $44.30
$ at risk if stopped
$498.37
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO): score, valuation & FAQ

Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO) is a Footwear & Accessories company that scores 67.7 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-) and Rev (B+). On valuation, SHOO sits about 18% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 6% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.

Is SHOO a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores SHOO 67.7 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by D/E (A-) and Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Steven Madden, Ltd.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does SHOO score 67.7 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on growth at 89.7 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 49.2 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. SHOO earns its highest marks on D/E (A-) and Rev (B+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so SHOO is measured against Footwear & Accessories peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is SHOO overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $44.30, SHOO sits about 18% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 6% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 22.1x P/E (graded C+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in SHOO?

Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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