Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

ADM analysis

Archer-Daniels-Midland CompanyFarm Products. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

ADM
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company · Farm Products
FCF$1.7bC+
Rev+1.0%C
D/E0.39A-
P/E22.0xB
PEG1.05B+
52.2Score
$79.73$38.4B
1Y Target$78.70Analyst consensus · 10 analysts
5Y Target$115.22Compound horizon
10Y Target$170.93Long-dated conviction
FCF$1.7bTTM
C+
FCF $1.7b — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+1.0%TTM YoY
C
Revenue +1.0% — flat, mature phase or headwinds present
D/E0.39
A-
D/E 0.39 — less debt than most Consumer Defensive peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E22.0x
B
P/E 22.0 — near the Consumer Defensive median (≈60th pctile)
PEG1.05
B+
PEG 1.05 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 52.2
Quality65.4
Growth52.4
Value41.5
Why this score
  • Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
10% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value7% aboveest. fair value ~$74
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~5% a year for the next decade — vs the ~3% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability-96% · Fgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Farm Products · market cap $38.4b. 10% off the 52-week high of $88.46. 10 sell-side analysts rate this a Hold with a mean 1-yr target of $78.70 (implying -1% upside).
Moat
Moat signals from the quantitative card are modest — profitability and capital efficiency are middle-of-pack. The thesis here depends on softer factors (switching costs, brand, distribution, regulatory protection) not captured by the quality-growth screen.
Risk
ROE 8% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.
Horizon
1-3 yr $78.70 (10-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $115.22 at ~8% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $170.93 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

ADM vs the Top Picks average

PillarADMBook avgDiff
Quality0.650.84-0.19
Growth0.520.92-0.39
Value0.410.75-0.33

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 82.9). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+8.8 over 39 daily scores
From 43.4 (Jun 22) → 52.2 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
25
Position size
$1,993
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$59.80
25% below $79.73
$ at risk if stopped
$498.31
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM): score, valuation & FAQ

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) is a Farm Products company that scores 52.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-) and PEG (B+). On valuation, ADM sits about 7% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 5% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is ADM a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores ADM 52.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by D/E (A-) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Archer-Daniels-Midland Company's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does ADM score 52.2 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). ADM earns its highest marks on D/E (A-) and PEG (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is ADM overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $79.73, ADM sits about 7% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 5% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 22.0x× P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in ADM?

ROE 8% is below the long-run sustainable threshold of ~10% — capital efficiency would need to improve for the equity base to compound at the market rate.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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