Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

AAL analysis

American Airlines Group Inc.Airlines. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Airlines & Travel
AAL
American Airlines Group Inc. · Airlines
FCF$285mC
Rev+7.5%B
D/E
P/S0.2xA
PEG0.89B+
55.6Score
$15.00$9.9B
1Y Target$19.03Analyst consensus · 23 analysts
5Y Target$33.29Compound horizon
10Y Target$59.50Long-dated conviction
FCF$285mTTM
C
FCF $285m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+7.5%TTM YoY
B
Revenue +7.5% — at or above S&P median
D/E
D/E data unavailable — neutral default
P/S0.2x
A
P/S 0.2x — cheapest decile in Industrials (≈10th pctile)
PEG0.89
B+
PEG 0.89 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 55.6
Quality0.48
Growth0.50
Value0.72
Why this score
  • Cyclical growth
  • Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
20% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value90% aboveest. fair value ~$8
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~32% a year for the next decade — vs the ~25% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Airlines · market cap $9.9b. Down 20% from 52-week high of $18.79 — deep drawdown territory. PEG 0.89 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 23 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $19.03 (implying +27% upside).
Moat
Turnaround / out-of-favor name — GAAP-unprofitable for now, so the durability case is forward-looking: it rests on a recovery (margin normalization, a cyclical upturn or restructuring) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than on current reported results.
Risk
Currently unprofitable (margin -0.6%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk.
Horizon
1-3 yr $19.03 (23-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $33.29 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $59.50 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

AAL vs the Top Picks average

PillarAALBook avgDiff
Quality0.480.83-0.36
Growth0.500.92-0.42
Value0.720.75-0.03

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 82.4). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+4.4 over 37 daily scores
From 51.2 (Jun 22) → 55.6 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
133
Position size
$1,995
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$11.25
25% below $15.00
$ at risk if stopped
$498.75
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL): score, valuation & FAQ

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) is a Airlines company that scores 55.6 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/S (A) and PEG (B+). On valuation, AAL sits about 90% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 32% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is AAL a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores AAL 55.6 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by P/S (A) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of American Airlines Group Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does AAL score 55.6 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). AAL earns its highest marks on P/S (A) and PEG (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is AAL overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $15.00, AAL sits about 90% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 32% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in AAL?

Currently unprofitable (margin -0.6%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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