FCF $308m — modest; watch for margin expansion · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev-1.5%FY YoYD+
Revenue -1.5% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse · Latest fiscal year vs the prior one, from SEC filings — a trailing-twelve-month comparison couldn't be assembled from this company's filings.
D/E1.05B
D/E 1.05 — near the Consumer Cyclical debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E36.2xC
P/E 36.2 — expensive vs Consumer Cyclical peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG4.16est.D
PEG 4.16 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios · PEG derived: P/E ÷ analysts' expected EPS growth for next year, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. When earnings are expected to dip this year, the growth used is the yearly average over this year and next, so a recovery isn't counted as growth.
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 37.4
Quality58.8
Growth34.7
Value30.0
Why this score
Foreign reporter (EUR)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
21% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value38% belowest. fair value ~$20
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking about 5% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~9% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability46% · A-gross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC8.2% · Breturn on invested capital — leads the quality score
Model-generatedWritten from the fundamentals then; figures in the text are as of that day, today's are above · Editorial standards
Why now
ZGN’s luxury formalwear line – especially its bespoke suits and tuxedos – continues to command premium pricing, delivering $308 m of free‑cash‑flow and a solid 5.7% profit margin despite a modest ‑1.5% revenue decline. Our Bull Rankings model flags Quality as the strongest pillar (59), meaning the business’s brand‑driven pricing power and high‑margin product mix are durable. With the analyst consensus 1‑yr target already at $14.40, the upside rests on the brand’s ability to reignite growth in the high‑net‑worth menswear segment and translate that into higher cash generation.
Moat
ZGN’s moat lies in its vertically integrated luxury menswear ecosystem – from in‑house fabric production to exclusive retail boutiques – which creates a cost advantage and pricing power in formalwear and leather accessories that rivals cannot quickly replicate. This integration fuels a consistent 10% ROE and protects margins on its high‑ticket suit and leather‑goods lines.
Risk
The stock trades at a lofty PE of 34.8 and a weak Value score of 28, indicating it is expensive relative to peers, while revenue is already shrinking (‑1.5% YoY) and debt‑to‑equity sits at 1.05. A further slowdown in luxury spending or a miss on margin targets would validate the high‑multiple premium and could push the price back toward its 52‑week low of $8.64. The key red flag is the combination of elevated valuation and declining top‑line momentum.
Horizon
1-3 yr $14.41 (13-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $21.10 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $31.30 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
ZGN vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
ZGN
Book avg
Diff
Quality
59
83
-24
Growth
35
89
-54
Value
30
76
-46
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · ZGN
Trend
-3.2 over 82 daily scores
From 40.6 (Jun 22) → 37.4 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
ZGN at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
-4.5%
90-day change
-2.2%
Forward EPS estimate
$0.60
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect ZGN to earn is drifting lower (-2.2%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · ZGN
$
%
%
Shares to buy
157
Position size
$1,991
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$9.51
25% below $12.68
$ at risk if stopped
$497.69
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. (ZGN) is an Apparel Manufacturing company that scores 37.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
The model flags Rev (D+) and PEG (D) as weaker areas. On valuation, ZGN sits about 38% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 5% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.
Is ZGN a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores ZGN 37.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. A score is a quantitative screen of Ermenegildo Zegna N.V.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does ZGN score 37.4 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on quality at 58.8 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 30.0 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. ZGN grades middle-of-pack across the graded signals, and is held back by Rev (D+) and PEG (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so ZGN is measured against Apparel Manufacturing peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is ZGN overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $12.68, ZGN sits about 38% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 5% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 36.2x P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in ZGN?
The stock trades at a lofty PE of 34.8 and a weak Value score of 28, indicating it is expensive relative to peers, while revenue is already shrinking (‑1.5% YoY) and debt‑to‑equity sits at 1.05. A further slowdown in luxury spending or a miss on margin targets would validate the high‑multiple premium and could push the price back toward its 52‑week low of $8.64. The key red flag is the combination of elevated valuation and declining top‑line momentum.