Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

XPEV analysis

XPeng Inc.Auto Manufacturers. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

Electric Vehicles & Battery
XPEV
XPeng Inc. · Auto Manufacturers
FCF
Rev+87.7%A
D/E0.83B
P/S1.1xB
PEG
29.9Score
$12.19$11.7B
1Y Target$22.15Analyst consensus · 25 analysts
5Y Target$38.74Compound horizon
10Y Target$69.23Long-dated conviction
FCF
FCF not applicable for this sector (bank / insurer / REIT) or data unavailable
Rev+87.7%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +87.7% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E0.83
B
D/E 0.83 — near the Consumer Cyclical debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/S1.1x
B
P/S 1.1x — near the Consumer Cyclical median (≈60th pctile)
PEG
PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 29.9
Quality24.2
Growth50.0
Value40.0
Why this score
  • Cyclical growth
  • Foreign reporter (CNY)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
57% off the 12-month high
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability14% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC-5.1% · Freturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
XPeng’s explosive 87.7% FY YoY revenue growth is being powered by its flagship G9 and G7 smart EVs, which lock in premium‑priced, tech‑hungry Chinese families and urban commuters; the company’s market cap of $11.5 B and a beta of 1.12 give it ample upside to capture the next wave of premium EV demand, and analysts already see the stock rallying to the consensus 1‑yr target of $22.14. The thesis rests on the continuation of this high‑velocity growth as XPeng scales its SEPA 2.0 platform across new models.
Moat
XPeng’s durable edge lies in its vertically integrated SEPA 2.0 architecture and XOS Tianji in‑car operating system, which embed proprietary software and over‑the‑air updates into every G‑series vehicle, creating a switching cost for owners who value seamless AI‑driven features that rivals cannot replicate quickly.
Risk
The bears point to a negative ‑1.5% profit margin and a ‑3.8% ROE, indicating the business is still loss‑making and capital‑intensive; a debt‑to‑equity of 0.83 adds leverage risk if revenue growth stalls, and a beta above 1 means market volatility could crush the stock before the growth narrative materialises. A sustained margin contraction or a sharp slowdown in revenue growth would invalidate the growth case.
Horizon
1-3 yr $22.15 (25-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $38.74 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $69.23 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

XPEV vs the Top Picks average

PillarXPEVBook avgDiff
Quality0.240.84-0.60
Growth0.500.84-0.34
Value0.400.78-0.38

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+13.9 over 47 daily scores
From 16.0 (Jun 22) → 29.9 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.4%
90-day change-16.5%
Forward EPS estimate$0.38

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect XPEV to earn is materially lower (-16.5%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A fiscal-year roll fell inside this window: the forward horizon moved on to the next financial year, which shifts the earnings figure without any analyst changing their view. That step is excluded, so the number above covers the rest of the window rather than all of it.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
164
Position size
$1,999
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$9.14
25% below $12.19
$ at risk if stopped
$499.79
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

XPeng Inc. (XPEV): score, valuation & FAQ

XPeng Inc. (XPEV) is a Auto Manufacturers company that scores 29.9 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A).

Is XPEV a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores XPEV 29.9 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. That is driven by Rev (A). A score is a quantitative screen of XPeng Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does XPEV score 29.9 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). XPEV earns its highest marks on Rev (A). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is XPEV overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for XPEV — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in XPEV?

The bears point to a negative ‑1.5% profit margin and a ‑3.8% ROE, indicating the business is still loss‑making and capital‑intensive; a debt‑to‑equity of 0.83 adds leverage risk if revenue growth stalls, and a beta above 1 means market volatility could crush the stock before the growth narrative materialises. A sustained margin contraction or a sharp slowdown in revenue growth would invalidate the growth case.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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