Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

XOM analysis

ExxonMobil Holdings CorporationOil & Gas Integrated. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

XOM
ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation · Oil & Gas Integrated
FCF$30.6bA
Rev-4.5%D+
D/E0.16A
P/E21.6xC+
PEG1.25B
55.6Score
$167.72$689.7B
1Y Target$168.55Analyst consensus · 22 analysts
5Y Target$246.77Compound horizon
10Y Target$366.06Long-dated conviction
FCF$30.6bTTM · 06/26
A
FCF $30.6b — top-tier cash generation, rarefied air · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 06/26).
Rev-4.5%FY YoY
D+
Revenue -4.5% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse · Computed from last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E0.16
A
D/E 0.16 — least levered decile in Energy (≈10th pctile)
P/E21.6x
C+
P/E 21.6 — above the Energy median (≈75th pctile)
PEG1.25
B
PEG 1.25 — acceptable premium for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 55.6
Quality71.7
Growth50.0
Value48.1
Why this score
  • Revenue shrinking
  • Short track record
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
5% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value85% aboveest. fair value ~$91
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~14% a year for the next decade — vs the ~-5% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Oil & Gas Integrated · market cap $689.7b. 5% off the 52-week high of $176.41. 22 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $168.55 (implying +0% upside).
Moat
ROE 13% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere. $689.7b market cap places it among the largest companies in the sector — distribution, R&D, and customer-acquisition costs amortize across a base peers can't replicate.
Risk
Production-cost sensitivity — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the cycle while marginal producers burn it; watch the cost-per-unit trend, not just headline revenue.
Horizon
1-3 yr $168.55 (22-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $246.77 at ~8% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $366.06 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

XOM vs the Top Picks average

PillarXOMBook avgDiff
Quality0.720.84-0.12
Growth0.500.84-0.34
Value0.480.78-0.30

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+2.9 over 45 daily scores
From 52.7 (Jun 22) → 55.6 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.7%
90-day change+0.4%
Forward EPS estimate$10.68

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect XOM to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
11
Position size
$1,845
3.7% of portfolio
Stop price
$125.79
25% below $167.72
$ at risk if stopped
$461.24
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (XOM): score, valuation & FAQ

ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (XOM) is a Oil & Gas Integrated company that scores 55.6 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are FCF (A) and D/E (A), while Rev (D+) rate weaker. On valuation, XOM sits about 85% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 14% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is XOM a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores XOM 55.6 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by FCF (A) and D/E (A). A score is a quantitative screen of ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does XOM score 55.6 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). XOM earns its highest marks on FCF (A) and D/E (A), and is held back by Rev (D+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is XOM overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $167.72, XOM sits about 85% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 14% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 21.6x P/E (graded C+). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in XOM?

Production-cost sensitivity — top-quartile cost producers generate cash through the cycle while marginal producers burn it; watch the cost-per-unit trend, not just headline revenue.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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