Oil & Gas E&P. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
SM
SM Energy Company · Oil & Gas E&P
61.5Score
$37.00Oct 9 close$8.8B
1Y Target$44.18Analyst consensus · 17 analysts
5Y Target$55.77Compound horizon
10Y Target$71.53Long-dated conviction
FCF$743mTTM · 06/26C+
FCF $743m — respectable but not differentiating · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+65.9%TTM YoYA
Revenue +65.9% — hypergrowth, top decile · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E0.95C+
D/E 0.95 — above the Energy debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E6.6xA
P/E 6.6 — cheapest decile in Energy (≈10th pctile)
PEG0.62A-
PEG 0.62 — strong; the growth comes cheap
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 61.5
Quality73.0
Growth50.0
Value63.9
Why this score
Raising its dividend
Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
11% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value48% belowest. fair value ~$72
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking about 2% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~23% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability25% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC12.9% · B+return on invested capital — leads the quality score
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Oil & Gas E&P · market cap $8.8b. 11% off the 52-week high of $41.56. Revenue growing +66% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.62 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 17 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $44.18 (implying +19% upside).
Moat
Net margin 19% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 13% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere.
Risk
Commodity exposure — earnings power tracks the price of the underlying commodity, not management execution. A 15-20% move in the commodity reprices the equity well before fundamentals catch up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $44.18 (17-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $55.77 at ~9% CAGR — dividend compounding plus earnings growth. 10 yr $71.53 if the moat survives secular pressure.
SM vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
SM
Book avg
Diff
Quality
73
83
-10
Growth
50
89
-39
Value
64
76
-12
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · SM
Trend
+8.5 over 82 daily scores
From 53.0 (Jun 22) → 61.5 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
SM at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+9.3%
90-day change
+8.1%
Forward EPS estimate
$8.17
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect SM to earn is materially higher (+8.1%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · SM
$
%
%
Shares to buy
54
Position size
$1,998
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$27.75
25% below $37.00
$ at risk if stopped
$499.50
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
SM Energy Company (SM): score, valuation & FAQ
SM Energy Company (SM) is an Oil & Gas E&P company that scores 61.5 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A), P/E (A) and PEG (A-). On valuation, SM sits about 48% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 2% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.
Is SM a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores SM 61.5 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by Rev (A), P/E (A) and PEG (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of SM Energy Company's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does SM score 61.5 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on quality at 73.0 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 50.0 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. SM earns its highest marks on Rev (A), P/E (A) and PEG (A-). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so SM is measured against Oil & Gas E&P peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is SM overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $37.00, SM sits about 48% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 2% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 6.6x P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in SM?
Commodity exposure — earnings power tracks the price of the underlying commodity, not management execution. A 15-20% move in the commodity reprices the equity well before fundamentals catch up.