Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

SM analysis

SM Energy CompanyOil & Gas E&P. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

SM
SM Energy Company · Oil & Gas E&P
FCF$743mC+
Rev+75.4%A
D/E0.95C+
P/E6.6xA
PEG0.65A-
61.4Score
$37.20$8.8B
1Y Target$40.60Analyst consensus · 15 analysts
5Y Target$51.26Compound horizon
10Y Target$65.74Long-dated conviction
FCF$743mTTM · 06/26
C+
FCF $743m — respectable but not differentiating · TTM computed from 4 most-recent quarters (TTM · 06/26).
Rev+75.4%TTM YoY
A
Revenue +75.4% — hypergrowth, top decile
D/E0.95
C+
D/E 0.95 — above the Energy debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E6.6x
A
P/E 6.6 — cheapest decile in Energy (≈10th pctile)
PEG0.65
A-
PEG 0.65 — strong; Lynch's preferred zone

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 61.4
Quality72.8
Growth50.0
Value63.6
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
3% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value39% belowest. fair value ~$61
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~-7% a year for the next decade — vs the ~5% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability27% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC12.9% · B+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Oil & Gas E&P · market cap $8.8b. Trading near 52-week high of $38.25 — momentum setup, limited technical margin of safety. Revenue growing +75% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.65 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 15 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $40.60 (implying +9% upside).
Moat
Net margin 18% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 13% meets the long-run market sustainable threshold — solid but not differentiated; the durability comes from elsewhere.
Risk
Trading within 3% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Commodity exposure — earnings power tracks the price of the underlying commodity, not management execution. A 15-20% move in the commodity reprices the equity well before fundamentals catch up.
Horizon
1-3 yr $40.60 (15-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $51.26 at ~7% CAGR — dividend + buyback compounding. 10 yr $65.74 if the moat survives secular pressure.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

SM vs the Top Picks average

PillarSMBook avgDiff
Quality0.730.84-0.11
Growth0.500.84-0.34
Value0.640.78-0.15

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+8.4 over 47 daily scores
From 53.0 (Jun 22) → 61.4 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+2.7%
90-day change-5.5%
Forward EPS estimate$7.54

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect SM to earn is materially lower (-5.5%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
53
Position size
$1,972
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$27.90
25% below $37.20
$ at risk if stopped
$492.90
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

SM Energy Company (SM): score, valuation & FAQ

SM Energy Company (SM) is a Oil & Gas E&P company that scores 61.4 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A), P/E (A) and PEG (A-). On valuation, SM sits about 39% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -7% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is SM a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores SM 61.4 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by Rev (A), P/E (A) and PEG (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of SM Energy Company's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does SM score 61.4 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). SM earns its highest marks on Rev (A), P/E (A) and PEG (A-). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is SM overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $37.20, SM sits about 39% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly -7% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 6.6x P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in SM?

Trading within 3% of the 52-week high — limited technical margin of safety; a momentum reversal would test conviction. Commodity exposure — earnings power tracks the price of the underlying commodity, not management execution. A 15-20% move in the commodity reprices the equity well before fundamentals catch up.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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