Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

WMT analysis

Walmart Inc.Discount Stores. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

WMT
Walmart Inc. · Discount Stores
FCF$12.6bA-
Rev+5.8%C+
D/E0.75B
P/E37.6xC
PEG4.36D
38.3Score
$103.70$825.3B
1Y Target$137.95Analyst consensus · 38 analysts
5Y Target$201.97Compound horizon
10Y Target$299.61Long-dated conviction
FCF$12.6bTTM
A-
FCF $12.6b — top-quartile, exceptional for any sector
Rev+5.8%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +5.8% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E0.75
B
D/E 0.75 — near the Consumer Defensive debt median (≈60th pctile)
P/E37.6x
C
P/E 37.6 — expensive vs Consumer Defensive peers (≈90th pctile)
PEG4.36
D
PEG 4.36 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 38.3
Quality69.7
Growth66.4
Value12.2
Why this score
  • Raising its dividend
  • Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
23% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value140% aboveest. fair value ~$43
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~31% a year for the next decade — vs the ~14% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability60% · Agross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC16.4% · A-return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Discount Stores · market cap $825.3b. Down 23% from 52-week high of $135.16 — deep drawdown territory. 38 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $137.95 (implying +33% upside).
Moat
ROE 24% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. $825.3b market cap places it among the largest companies in the sector — distribution, R&D, and customer-acquisition costs amortize across a base peers can't replicate.
Risk
Trailing P/E 38x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. Net margin 3.2% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $137.95 (38-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $201.97 at ~14% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $299.61 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

WMT vs the Top Picks average

PillarWMTBook avgDiff
Quality0.700.84-0.14
Growth0.660.84-0.17
Value0.120.78-0.66

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+3.3 over 47 daily scores
From 35.0 (Jun 22) → 38.3 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-0.1%
90-day change-0.3%
Forward EPS estimate$3.28

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect WMT to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
19
Position size
$1,970
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$77.78
25% below $103.70
$ at risk if stopped
$492.57
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Walmart Inc. (WMT): score, valuation & FAQ

Walmart Inc. (WMT) is a Discount Stores company that scores 38.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are FCF (A-), while PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, WMT sits about 140% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 31% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is WMT a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores WMT 38.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by FCF (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Walmart Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does WMT score 38.3 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). WMT earns its highest marks on FCF (A-), and is held back by PEG (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is WMT overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $103.70, WMT sits about 140% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 31% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 37.6x P/E (graded C). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in WMT?

Trailing P/E 38x sits well above the S&P median (~20x) — multiple compression is a real risk if revenue growth decelerates. Net margin 3.2% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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