Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. · Building Products & Equipment
FCF$569mC+
Rev+5.0%C+
D/E0.98C+
P/E27.5xB
PEG1.27B
66.3Score
$149.41$11.5B
1Y Target$182.20Analyst consensus · 10 analysts
5Y Target$266.76Compound horizon
10Y Target$395.72Long-dated conviction
FCF$569mTTMC+
FCF $569m — respectable but not differentiating
Rev+5.0%TTM YoYC+
Revenue +5.0% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E0.98C+
D/E 0.98 — above the Industrials debt median (≈75th pctile)
P/E27.5xB
P/E 27.5 — near the Industrials median (≈60th pctile)
PEG1.27B
PEG 1.27 — acceptable premium for growth
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 66.3
Quality0.78
Growth0.70
Value0.53
Why this score
Raising its dividend
Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
17% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value30% aboveest. fair value ~$115
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~16% a year for the next decade — vs the ~15% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability44% · A-gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC14.1% · B+return on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Building Products & Equipment · market cap $11.5b. 17% off the 52-week high of $179.31. 10 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $182.20 (implying +22% upside).
Moat
Net margin 14% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 23% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 133% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $182.20 (10-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $266.76 at ~12% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $395.72 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
WMS vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
WMS
Book avg
Diff
Quality
0.78
0.83
-0.05
Growth
0.70
0.91
-0.21
Value
0.53
0.75
-0.22
Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.8). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.
Score history · WMS
Trend
+0.7 over 32 daily scores
From 65.6 (Jun 22) → 66.3 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
Position sizing · WMS
$
%
%
Shares to buy
13
Position size
$1,942
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$112.06
25% below $149.41
$ at risk if stopped
$485.58
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS): score, valuation & FAQ
Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (WMS) is a Building Products & Equipment company that scores 66.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
On valuation, WMS sits about 30% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 16% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is WMS a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores WMS 66.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. A score is a quantitative screen of Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does WMS score 66.3 on Bull Rankings?
The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). WMS grades middle-of-pack across the strip. Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.
Is WMS overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $149.41, WMS sits about 30% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 16% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 27.5x× P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in WMS?
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.