1Y Target$82.85Near-term target
5Y Target$116.02Compound horizon
10Y Target$170.54Long-dated conviction
FCF$685mFY2025C+FCF $685m — respectable but not differentiating · From reported FY2025 10-K (OCF − CapEx); TTM not fully reconstructable from free tier.
Rev-0.4%TTM YoYD+Revenue -0.4% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse
D/E1.06totalC+D/E 1.06 — moderately levered, watch interest coverage · Total D/E computed from balance sheet (short-term + long-term debt + lease obligations) ÷ stockholders equity. More accurate than native field, which often uses long-term debt only.
P/E18.3xBP/E 18.3 — moderate premium, defensible with growth
PEG—proxy—PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable · PEG proxy: P/E ÷ revenue growth % (true PEG requires forward EPS estimates, not in Finnhub free tier).
Why now
Construction · market cap $9.3b. Down 47% from 52-week high of $135.52 — deep drawdown territory.
Moat
ROE 21% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Down 47% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Net margin 3.2% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $82.85 (structural (no analyst coverage)) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $116.02 at ~10% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $170.54 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
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