Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

GVA analysis

Granite Construction IncorporatedEngineering & Construction. Scored on the same transparent 7-signal model behind the daily rankings.

GVA
Granite Construction Incorporated · Engineering & Construction
FCF$302mC
Rev+14.9%B+
D/E1.29C
P/E34.3xB
PEG0.15A
69.6Score
$124.03$5.4B
1Y Target$169.00Analyst consensus · 6 analysts
5Y Target$247.43Compound horizon
10Y Target$367.05Long-dated conviction
FCF$302mTTM
C
FCF $302m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+14.9%TTM YoY
B+
Revenue +14.9% — above sector median, healthy trajectory
D/E1.29
C
D/E 1.29 — more levered than most Industrials peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E34.3x
B
P/E 34.3 — near the Industrials median (≈60th pctile)
PEG0.15
A
PEG 0.15 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 69.6
Quality0.58
Growth0.71
Value0.82
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
23% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value21% aboveest. fair value ~$103
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~14% a year for the next decade — vs the ~13% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability20% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC10.1% · Breturn on invested capital — not score-weighted
Why now
Granite Construction’s Construction segment is riding a secular surge in U.S. infrastructure spend, especially on renewable‑energy projects such as solar farms and battery‑storage facilities, delivering a 14.9% YoY revenue growth and a robust $302 m free‑cash‑flow. The stock trades at a razor‑thin PEG of 0.15, meaning the market is pricing only modest growth into a high‑quality franchise, while the 17.9% ROE shows earnings are efficiently reinvested. The thesis rests on the compounding of this pipeline‑driven growth, which should persist as municipalities and energy firms continue to fund large‑scale, capital‑intensive projects.
Moat
GVA’s integrated Construction and Materials segments give it a unique cost advantage and lock‑in effect for public‑sector clients, who prefer a single‑source partner for complex builds—from bridges to solar‑plus‑storage sites. Long‑term contracts with municipal agencies and energy companies create high switching costs, while the company’s proven ability to deliver technically demanding projects (e.g., tunnels, marine ports) limits competitive encroachment.
Risk
The stock bears a steep valuation at a P/E of 33.8 and a debt‑to‑equity of 1.29, exposing it to higher financing costs if interest rates rise. Its profit margin is only 4%, leaving little cushion for a slowdown in public‑infrastructure funding, and the Bull Rankings model flags a weak Quality score (58). A drop in revenue growth below 10% or margin compression would confirm the bear case and invalidate the growth narrative.
Horizon
1-3 yr $169.00 (6-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $247.43 at ~15% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $367.05 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
Trend
+5.5 over 22 daily scores
From 64.1 (Jun 22) → 69.6 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Shares to buy
16
Position size
$1,984
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$93.02
25% below $124.03
$ at risk if stopped
$496.12
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA): score, valuation & FAQ

Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) is a Engineering & Construction company that scores 69.6 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A) and Rev (B+). On valuation, GVA sits about 21% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 14% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is GVA a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores GVA 69.6 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by PEG (A) and Rev (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Granite Construction Incorporated's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does GVA score 69.6 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). GVA earns its highest marks on PEG (A) and Rev (B+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is GVA overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $124.03, GVA sits about 21% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 14% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 34.3x× P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in GVA?

The stock bears a steep valuation at a P/E of 33.8 and a debt‑to‑equity of 1.29, exposing it to higher financing costs if interest rates rise. Its profit margin is only 4%, leaving little cushion for a slowdown in public‑infrastructure funding, and the Bull Rankings model flags a weak Quality score (58). A drop in revenue growth below 10% or margin compression would confirm the bear case and invalidate the growth narrative.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser.

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