Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) Stock Analysis: Score 48.9/100, Valuation & FAQ

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GVA

Granite Construction Incorporated · Engineering & Construction

48.9Score

$112.50Oct 9 close$5.0B

1Y Target$171.67Analyst consensus · 6 analysts

5Y Target$300.25Compound horizon

10Y Target$536.60Long-dated conviction

FCF$472mTTM · 06/26

FCF $472m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.

Rev+21.8%TTM YoY

A-

Revenue +21.8% — strong growth, well above S&P median (~7%) · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.

D/E2.15

D/E 2.15 — most levered decile in Industrials (≈95th pctile)

P/S^*1.0x

A-

P/S 1.0x — cheaper than most Industrials peers (≈25th pctile)

PEG0.11

PEG 0.11 — exceptional; paying well under fair value for growth

* P/S replaces P/E — no positive earnings to divide by

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 48.9

Quality48.8

Growth73.1

Value32.8

Entry · Margin of safety

52-week rangeNear 52-week low

31% off the 12-month high

vs DCF fair value26% belowest. fair value ~$152

What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 1% next year, rising to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~13% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.

Quality signals

Gross profitability16% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score

ROIC10.7% · Breturn on invested capital — leads the quality score

Model-generatedWritten Oct 2, 2026 from the fundamentals then; figures in the text are as of that day, today's are above · Editorial standards

Why now

Granite Construction’s Construction segment is cash‑generating on massive public‑sector infrastructure work – from highways to solar‑plus‑battery storage projects – and it just posted a 21.8% revenue growth YoY while delivering $472 m of free‑cash‑flow and a razor‑thin PEG of 0.11. Our Bull Rankings model gives GVA a 66.9/100 quality‑growth score, with Value (84) as the strongest pillar, underscoring that the stock trades on the cheap side of its peers. The thesis rests on the compounding power of continued infrastructure spend that can sustain double‑digit top‑line growth beyond the modest 3% reverse‑DCF implied cash‑flow growth baked into today’s price.

Moat

GVA’s integrated Construction & Materials business locks in long‑term municipal and utility contracts for road, bridge and renewable‑energy projects, creating high switching costs and a built‑in supply‑chain advantage that competitors can’t replicate quickly. The Materials segment supplies the aggregate and concrete needed for those projects, reinforcing pricing power and margin upside whenever public‑funded spending ramps up.

Risk

The company is running a -3.3% profit margin and a -21.9% ROE, reflecting cash‑burn and weak earnings despite revenue expansion; a debt‑to‑equity of 2.15 adds leverage risk, and the reverse‑DCF shows the market assumes only 3% cash‑flow growth versus the 21.8% revenue surge, a clear sign of pessimism. A slowdown in federal infrastructure funding or a rise in borrowing costs would push margins deeper negative and confirm the bear case.

Horizon

1-3 yr $171.67 (6-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $300.25 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $536.60 — return distribution heavily skewed.

GVA vs the Top Picks average

Pillar	GVA	Book avg	Diff
Quality	49	83	-34
Growth	73	89	-16
Value	33	76	-43

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Score history · GVA

Trend

-15.2 over 82 daily scores

From 64.1 (Jun 22) → 48.9 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

GVA at a glance

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change	+0.8%
90-day change	+5.5%
Forward EPS estimate	$8.06

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect GVA to earn is materially higher (+5.5%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Position sizing · GVA

Portfolio

Risk per trade

Stop loss below entry

Shares to buy

Position size

$1,913

3.8% of portfolio

Stop price

$84.38

25% below $112.50

$ at risk if stopped

$478.13

budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

The Bull Rankings deep dive

Analysis as of October 2, 2026 · figures are as written that day and are not updated. Today's numbers are in the cards above.

Written by the Bull Rankings model from fundamentals as of Jun 30, 2026, and checked against those figures. How we source & verify every figure →

The Bull Rankings scorecard — our quality-growth score is 66.9 / 100, built from three pillars scored 0–100: Quality 49, Growth 73, Value 84 (valuation is judged against sector peers). At today's price, our reverse-DCF read says the market is implicitly betting on free-cash-flow growth of about 3% a year next year, rising to 4% a year by year ten — a gauge of how much optimism is already in the stock.

The thesis

Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) sits on a value‑heavy foundation. Our model assigns it a 66.9/100 quality‑growth score, with Value 84 eclipsing Quality 49 and Growth 73. The high Value rating tells us the current price is cheap relative to sector peers and the company’s own historical multiples. In the quarter ended 2026‑06‑30, GVA’s free‑cash‑flow of $472 m and a trailing revenue growth of 21.8 % give the stock a price‑to‑sales of 1.1 and a PEG of 0.11—both comfortably below the sector median. The market has priced in a modest 3 % first‑year free‑cash‑flow growth that tapers to 4 % by year ten, a rate that is lower than the recent 21.8 % revenue expansion. Thus, the stock is already pessimistic on growth, yet remains attractive because of its cheap valuation and the durability of its business.

What the business actually is

GVA delivers infrastructure solutions to public and private clients across the United States. Its Construction segment builds roads, bridges, rail lines, airports, marine ports, dams, reservoirs, aqueducts, and other public‑sector projects. It also undertakes complex site development, mining, public safety, tunnel, solar, battery storage, and power projects. The Materials segment supplies construction materials to these projects. The Construction arm is the revenue engine, feeding the company’s 21.8 % YoY growth in the latest twelve months.

Why it can (or can't) keep compounding

The Construction segment’s moat lies in its end‑to‑end delivery model: from design to execution, GVA owns the full value chain. This vertical integration limits competitors’ ability to undercut on price or speed. The company’s free‑cash‑flow of $472 m in the latest quarter shows it can fund growth internally, reducing reliance on debt. However, the debt‑to‑equity of 2.15 signals a leveraged balance sheet that could constrain future expansion if interest rates climb. Margins remain negative at -3.3 %, and ROE is -21.9 %, indicating that the business is still burning cash rather than generating sustainable profits. The strongest pillar in our model—Value—suggests the market has not yet fully priced in the potential for margin improvement once the company scales its projects and secures more long‑term contracts.

The valuation question

At $119.92 per share, GVA trades at a price‑to‑sales of 1.1 and a PEG of 0.11. The reverse‑DCF implies a 3 % first‑year free‑cash‑flow growth, easing to 4 % by year ten. This is a lower growth assumption than the 21.8 % revenue growth the company just delivered. The market has therefore priced in pessimism on future expansion. If GVA can sustain its current revenue momentum while tightening margins, the implied growth would be too conservative, and the stock would be undervalued. Conversely, if the company fails to convert revenue into cash flow, the valuation remains justified or even over‑valued.

The bear case

The most compelling risk is the negative profit margin of -3.3 % and the -21.9 % ROE. These figures reveal that GVA is still burning cash and has not yet achieved profitability. If the company cannot lift margins above breakeven, free‑cash‑flow will stagnate or decline, undermining the value story.

What would change our mind

Margin turnaround: If GVA’s profit margin improves to +1 % or higher, the quality pillar would strengthen, shifting the model’s rating toward a growth profile.
Debt reduction: A drop in debt‑to‑equity below 1.5 would alleviate leverage concerns and support higher free‑cash‑flow growth.
Revenue growth slowdown: Should revenue growth fall below 15 % YoY, the PEG would rise above 1, eroding the cheapness that underpins the current value thesis.

These thresholds are anchored to the latest quarter’s data and would materially alter the balance of our assessment.

Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA): score, valuation & FAQ

Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) is an Engineering & Construction company that scores 48.9 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are PEG (A), Rev (A-) and P/S (A-), while D/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, GVA sits about 26% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 1% next year, rising to 4% a year by year ten.

Is GVA a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores GVA 48.9 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by PEG (A), Rev (A-) and P/S (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Granite Construction Incorporated's fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does GVA score 48.9 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on growth at 73.1 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 32.8 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. GVA earns its highest marks on PEG (A), Rev (A-) and P/S (A-), and is held back by D/E (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so GVA is measured against Engineering & Construction peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is GVA overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $112.50, GVA sits about 26% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 1% next year, rising to 4% a year by year ten. Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in GVA?

The company is running a -3.3% profit margin and a -21.9% ROE, reflecting cash‑burn and weak earnings despite revenue expansion; a debt‑to‑equity of 2.15 adds leverage risk, and the reverse‑DCF shows the market assumes only 3% cash‑flow growth versus the 21.8% revenue surge, a clear sign of pessimism. A slowdown in federal infrastructure funding or a rise in borrowing costs would push margins deeper negative and confirm the bear case.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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