Trex Company, Inc. — Building Products & Equipment. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
TREX
Trex Company, Inc. · Building Products & Equipment
FCF$208mC
Rev+7.0%C+
D/E0.30A-
P/E27.1xB
PEG1.00B+
73.0Score
$45.77$4.7B
1Y Target$54.67Analyst consensus · 18 analysts
5Y Target$80.04Compound horizon
10Y Target$118.73Long-dated conviction
FCF$208mTTMC
FCF $208m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+7.0%TTM YoYC+
Revenue +7.0% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E0.30A-
D/E 0.30 — less debt than most Industrials peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E27.1xB
P/E 27.1 — near the Industrials median (≈60th pctile)
PEG1.00B+
PEG 1.00 — near fair value, classic Lynch benchmark (1.0)
Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.
Quality-growth score · 73
Quality88.2
Growth68.0
Value64.9
Why this score
Buying back stock
Durable high returns
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
31% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value64% aboveest. fair value ~$28
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~22% a year for the next decade — vs the ~14% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability28% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC17.5% · A-return on invested capital — not score-weighted
Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.
Why now
Trex’s dominance in the high‑margin composite decking arena—anchored by the fast‑growing Trex Transcend line—is the single catalyst that will keep cash flowing. The business is delivering 7% revenue growth, a robust 14.7% profit margin, and generates $208 m of free cash flow while our model flags a Quality score of 88, confirming durable earnings power. The thesis rests on compounding cash flow from premium decking that continues to outpace traditional wood, driving the next wave of growth.
Moat
Trex’s moat stems from its proprietary composite material and extensive product ecosystem (Transcend, Signature, DeckLighting) that lock in contractors and homeowners, creating high switching costs and pricing power that fuels a 17.6% ROE. The integrated decking‑to‑railing portfolio lets the company capture the full remodel spend, a barrier competitors struggle to replicate quickly.
Risk
The stock trades at a lofty PE of 26.9 despite only 7% revenue growth, and our model’s weakest pillar—Value at 65—signals the market may be overpaying. A slowdown in outdoor‑living demand or a rise in raw‑material costs could compress margins, and a beta of 1.47 amplifies downside in a volatile market. A breach of the implied 22% free‑cash‑flow growth in the reverse DCF would trigger a sharp re‑rating.
Horizon
1-3 yr $54.67 (18-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $80.04 at ~12% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $118.73 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.
TREX vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
TREX
Book avg
Diff
Quality
0.88
0.83
+0.05
Growth
0.68
0.87
-0.19
Value
0.65
0.76
-0.11
Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.6). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.
Score history · TREX
Trend
+10.2 over 52 daily scores
From 62.8 (Jun 22) → 73.0 (now)
One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.
TREX at a glance
Every figure here comes from the same audited fundamentals behind the score. Charts drawn from data the score does not use say so on the card.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+4.1%
90-day change
+8.8%
Forward EPS estimate
$2.02
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect TREX to earn is materially higher (+8.8%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →
Position sizing · TREX
$
%
%
Shares to buy
43
Position size
$1,968
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$34.33
25% below $45.77
$ at risk if stopped
$492.03
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.
Trex Company, Inc. (TREX): score, valuation & FAQ
Trex Company, Inc. (TREX) is a Building Products & Equipment company that scores 73 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a solid, above-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-) and PEG (B+). On valuation, TREX sits about 64% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 22% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.
Is TREX a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores TREX 73 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a solid, above-average reading. That is driven by D/E (A-) and PEG (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Trex Company, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does TREX score 73 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on quality at 88.2 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 64.9 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. TREX earns its highest marks on D/E (A-) and PEG (B+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so TREX is measured against Building Products & Equipment peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is TREX overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $45.77, TREX sits about 64% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 22% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 27.1x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in TREX?
The stock trades at a lofty PE of 26.9 despite only 7% revenue growth, and our model’s weakest pillar—Value at 65—signals the market may be overpaying. A slowdown in outdoor‑living demand or a rise in raw‑material costs could compress margins, and a beta of 1.47 amplifies downside in a volatile market. A breach of the implied 22% free‑cash‑flow growth in the reverse DCF would trigger a sharp re‑rating.
Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.