Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. (VIST) stock analysis
Oil & Gas E&P. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
VIST
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. · Oil & Gas E&P
58.7Score
$66.26Oct 9 close$7.3B
1Y Target$91.31Analyst consensus · 12 analysts
5Y Target$115.28Compound horizon
10Y Target$147.84Long-dated conviction
FCF$289mTTM · 06/26C
FCF $289m — modest; watch for margin expansion · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+50.2%FY YoYA
Revenue +50.2% — hypergrowth, top decile · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E1.07C
D/E 1.07 — more levered than most Energy peers (≈90th pctile)
P/E8.8xA-
P/E 8.8 — cheaper than most Energy peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG0.71est.A-
PEG 0.71 — strong; the growth comes cheap · PEG derived: P/E ÷ analysts' expected EPS growth for next year, because this name has no vendor-supplied PEG. When earnings are expected to dip this year, the growth used is the yearly average over this year and next, so a recovery isn't counted as growth.
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 58.7
Quality67.1
Growth50.0
Value60.2
Why this score
Durable high returns
Diluting shareholders
Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week high
19% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value9% aboveest. fair value ~$61
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 17% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~25% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Oil & Gas E&P · market cap $7.3b. 19% off the 52-week high of $81.44. Revenue growing +50% — in hypergrowth territory. PEG 0.71 — paying under fair value for the growth rate. 12 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $91.31 (implying +38% upside).
Moat
Net margin 24% sits well above the S&P median (~11%) — suggests structural pricing advantage or cost discipline competitors can't quickly close. ROE 30% — top-decile capital efficiency. Either pricing leverage, low capital intensity, or aggressive buybacks; the durability story depends on which.
Risk
Hedge-book exposure — many commodity producers hedge forward production; if the hedge book is concentrated at prices well below spot, the upside the market expects is already locked away.
Horizon
1-3 yr $91.31 (12-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $115.28 at ~12% CAGR — earnings growth has to outrun share dilution. 10 yr $147.84 if the moat survives secular pressure.
VIST vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
VIST
Book avg
Diff
Quality
67
83
-16
Growth
50
89
-39
Value
60
76
-16
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · VIST
Trend
+9.5 over 82 daily scores
From 49.2 (Jun 22) → 58.7 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
VIST at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
-1.9%
90-day change
-0.6%
Forward EPS estimate
$9.92
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect VIST to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · VIST
$
%
%
Shares to buy
30
Position size
$1,988
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$49.70
25% below $66.26
$ at risk if stopped
$496.95
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. (VIST): score, valuation & FAQ
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. (VIST) is an Oil & Gas E&P company that scores 58.7 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are Rev (A), P/E (A-) and PEG (A-). On valuation, VIST sits about 9% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 17% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.
Is VIST a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores VIST 58.7 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by Rev (A), P/E (A-) and PEG (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does VIST score 58.7 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on quality at 67.1 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 50.0 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. VIST earns its highest marks on Rev (A), P/E (A-) and PEG (A-). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so VIST is measured against Oil & Gas E&P peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is VIST overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $66.26, VIST sits about 9% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 17% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at an 8.8x P/E (graded A-). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in VIST?
Hedge-book exposure — many commodity producers hedge forward production; if the hedge book is concentrated at prices well below spot, the upside the market expects is already locked away.