Bull Rankings model

UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI) stock analysis

Lumber & Wood Production. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
UFPI
UFP Industries, Inc. · Lumber & Wood Production
46.3Score
$74.21Oct 9 close$4.1B
1Y Target$102.60Analyst consensus · 5 analysts
5Y Target$150.22Compound horizon
10Y Target$222.84Long-dated conviction
FCF$267mTTM · 06/26
C
FCF $267m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.
Rev-4.7%TTM YoY
D+
Revenue -4.7% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E0.13
B+
D/E 0.13 — below the Basic Materials debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E16.9x
B
P/E 16.9 — near the Basic Materials median (≈60th pctile)
PEG2.67
C
PEG 2.67 — expensive relative to growth rate

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 46.3
Quality63.0
Growth29.5
Value53.4
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
37% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value20% aboveest. fair value ~$62
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 9% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~4% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability24% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC7.6% · C+return on invested capital — leads the quality score

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Lumber & Wood Production · market cap $4.1b. Down 37% from 52-week high of $118.00 — deep drawdown territory. 5 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $102.60 (implying +38% upside).
Moat
FCF converts 107% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash.
Risk
Down 37% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Net margin 4.0% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $102.60 (5-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $150.22 at ~15% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $222.84 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.

UFPI vs the Top Picks average

PillarUFPIBook avgDiff
Quality6383-20
Growth2989-60
Value5376-23

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
-0.8 over 82 daily scores
From 47.1 (Jun 22) → 46.3 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

UFPI at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD46.3/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY63.0GROWTH29.5VALUE53.4Reverse-DCF · Price implies ~9% growth a year from here.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$74.2LOW $74HIGH $118Trading near its 52-week low ($74–$118).
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$61.3–$62.1FAIR-VALUE RANGE$74.2PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$61.7 · price $74.2 is 20% above it.
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock-15%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-0.2%
90-day change+0.4%
Forward EPS estimate$5.52

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect UFPI to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
26
Position size
$1,929
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$55.66
25% below $74.21
$ at risk if stopped
$482.36
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI): score, valuation & FAQ

UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI) is a Lumber & Wood Production company that scores 46.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (B+), while Rev (D+) rate weaker. On valuation, UFPI sits about 20% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 9% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.

Is UFPI a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores UFPI 46.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by D/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of UFP Industries, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does UFPI score 46.3 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on quality at 63.0 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 29.5 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. UFPI earns its highest marks on D/E (B+), and is held back by Rev (D+). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so UFPI is measured against Lumber & Wood Production peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is UFPI overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $74.21, UFPI sits about 20% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 9% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 16.9x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in UFPI?

Down 37% from the 52-week high — the market is pricing in something the screen can't see; verify the bear case before sizing up. Net margin 4.0% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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