Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

UFPI analysis

UFP Industries, Inc.Lumber & Wood Production. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

UFPI
UFP Industries, Inc. · Lumber & Wood Production
FCF$267mC
Rev-4.7%D+
D/E0.13A-
P/E20.3xB
PEG2.67C
43.9Score
$88.80$4.9B
1Y Target$102.00Analyst consensus · 5 analysts
5Y Target$149.34Compound horizon
10Y Target$221.53Long-dated conviction
FCF$267mTTM
C
FCF $267m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev-4.7%TTM YoY
D+
Revenue -4.7% — shrinking; needs a catalyst to reverse
D/E0.13
A-
D/E 0.13 — less debt than most Basic Materials peers (≈25th pctile)
P/E20.3x
B
P/E 20.3 — near the Basic Materials median (≈60th pctile)
PEG2.67
C
PEG 2.67 — expensive relative to growth rate

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 43.9
Quality62.9
Growth42.6
Value31.6
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
25% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value4% belowest. fair value ~$93
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~13% a year for the next decade — vs the ~23% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability24% · Bgross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC7.6% · C+return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Lumber & Wood Production · market cap $4.9b. Down 25% from 52-week high of $118.00 — deep drawdown territory. 5 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $102.00 (implying +15% upside).
Moat
FCF converts 107% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Net margin 4.0% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.
Horizon
1-3 yr $102.00 (5-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $149.34 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $221.53 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

UFPI vs the Top Picks average

PillarUFPIBook avgDiff
Quality0.630.84-0.21
Growth0.430.84-0.41
Value0.320.78-0.47

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-3.2 over 47 daily scores
From 47.1 (Jun 22) → 43.9 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+5.3%
90-day change+1.7%
Forward EPS estimate$5.59

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect UFPI to earn is drifting higher (+1.7%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
22
Position size
$1,954
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$66.60
25% below $88.80
$ at risk if stopped
$488.40
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI): score, valuation & FAQ

UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI) is a Lumber & Wood Production company that scores 43.9 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-), while Rev (D+) rate weaker. On valuation, UFPI sits about 4% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 13% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is UFPI a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores UFPI 43.9 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by D/E (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of UFP Industries, Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does UFPI score 43.9 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). UFPI earns its highest marks on D/E (A-), and is held back by Rev (D+). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is UFPI overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $88.80, UFPI sits about 4% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies roughly 13% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 20.3x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in UFPI?

Net margin 4.0% is thin — operating leverage cuts both ways; input-cost inflation or pricing pressure hits the bottom line first.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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