Bull Rankings model

Suzano S.A. (SUZ) stock analysis

Paper & Paper Products. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
SUZ
Suzano S.A. · Paper & Paper Products
48.1Score
$8.57Oct 9 close$10.6B
1Y Target$12.55Analyst consensus · 6 analysts
5Y Target$15.84Compound horizon
10Y Target$20.31Long-dated conviction
FCF$975mTTM · 06/26
C+
FCF $975m — respectable but not differentiating · Trailing twelve months to 06/26 (operating cash flow − capex).
Rev+5.7%FY YoY
C+
Revenue +5.7% — steady but below market-beating range · Computed from the last two annual revenue figures (FY YoY).
D/E1.99
D
D/E 1.99 — most levered decile in Basic Materials (≈95th pctile)
P/E6.9x
A
P/E 6.9 — cheapest decile in Basic Materials (≈10th pctile)
PEG*—
—
PEG n/a — not reported for this company

* PEG n/a — not reported for this company

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 48.1
Quality57.3
Growth50.0
Value53.4
Why this score
  • Cyclical growth
  • Foreign reporter (BRL)
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
26% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value34% belowest. fair value ~$13
What the price assumes: free cash flow shrinking about 4% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~8% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Paper & Paper Products · market cap $10.6b. Down 26% from 52-week high of $11.54 — deep drawdown territory. 6 sell-side analysts rate this a Strong Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $12.55 (implying +46% upside).
Moat
Net margin 17% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 18% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately.
Risk
Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.
Horizon
1-3 yr $12.55 (6-analyst consensus) — multiple re-rating thesis requires a catalyst. 5 yr $15.84 at ~13% CAGR — earnings growth and a modest re-rating. 10 yr $20.31 if the moat survives secular pressure.

SUZ vs the Top Picks average

PillarSUZBook avgDiff
Quality5783-26
Growth5089-39
Value5376-23

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
-5.3 over 82 daily scores
From 53.4 (Jun 22) → 48.1 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

SUZ at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD48.1/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY57.3GROWTH50.0VALUE53.4Reverse-DCF · Price implies roughly no growth from here.
PRICE vs OUR DCF FAIR VALUE$12.2$14FAIR-VALUE RANGE$8.6PRICEOur DCF fair value ~$12.9 · price $8.6 is 34% below it.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$8.6LOW $7.6HIGH $11.5Trading at the 26th percentile of its 52-week range ($7.6–$11.5).
WHERE THIS SCORE SITS0255075100SUZ 48.1Ranks above 48% of 1,709 companies on the quality-growth score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.0%
90-day change+0.0%
Forward EPS estimate$1.48

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect SUZ to earn is essentially unchanged. The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
233
Position size
$1,997
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$6.43
25% below $8.57
$ at risk if stopped
$499.20
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

Suzano S.A. (SUZ): score, valuation & FAQ

Suzano S.A. (SUZ) is a Paper & Paper Products company that scores 48.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a below-average reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are P/E (A), while D/E (D) rate weaker. On valuation, SUZ sits about 34% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 4% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten.

Is SUZ a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores SUZ 48.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a below-average reading. That is driven by P/E (A). A score is a quantitative screen of Suzano S.A.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does SUZ score 48.1 on Bull Rankings?

It grades evenly across the three pillars — quality 57.3, growth 50.0, value 53.4 out of 100 — so no single pillar is carrying the score. SUZ earns its highest marks on P/E (A), and is held back by D/E (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so SUZ is measured against Paper & Paper Products peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is SUZ overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $8.57, SUZ sits about 34% below our discounted-cash-flow fair value (a margin of safety) — the current price implies free cash flow shrinking about 4% next year, then recovering toward 4% a year by year ten. It trades at a 6.9x P/E (graded A). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in SUZ?

Value re-rating depends on a catalyst. Without one — analyst day, divestiture, margin recovery, capital return — the stock can stay cheap on these multiples for years.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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