Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

WFG analysis

West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.Lumber & Wood Production. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

WFG
West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. · Lumber & Wood Production
FCF-$315mF
Rev-11.5%D
D/E0.07A-
P/S1.0xA-
PEG
13.3Score
$69.75$5.5B
1Y Target$84.83Analyst consensus · 6 analysts
5Y Target$148.37Compound horizon
10Y Target$265.17Long-dated conviction
FCF-$315mTTM
F
FCF is negative (-$315m) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names
Rev-11.5%TTM YoY
D
Revenue -11.5% — meaningful contraction
D/E0.07
A-
D/E 0.07 — less debt than most Basic Materials peers (≈25th pctile)
P/S1.0x
A-
P/S 1.0x — cheaper than most Basic Materials peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG
PEG not meaningful — earnings growth negative or data unavailable

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 13.3
Quality33.8
Growth13.8
Value4.2
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
9% off the 12-month high
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability17% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC-15.1% · Freturn on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Lumber & Wood Production · market cap $5.5b. 9% off the 52-week high of $76.99. Revenue -12% — in contraction; any catalyst that reverses this triggers re-rating. 6 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $84.83 (implying +22% upside).
Moat
Turnaround / out-of-favor name — GAAP-unprofitable for now, so the durability case is forward-looking: it rests on a recovery (margin normalization, a cyclical upturn or restructuring) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than on current reported results.
Risk
Free cash flow is negative (-$315m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Revenue contracting -12% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Currently unprofitable (margin -17.2%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk.
Horizon
1-3 yr $84.83 (6-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $148.37 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $265.17 — return distribution heavily skewed.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

WFG vs the Top Picks average

PillarWFGBook avgDiff
Quality0.340.84-0.50
Growth0.140.84-0.70
Value0.040.78-0.74

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
-0.1 over 47 daily scores
From 13.4 (Jun 22) → 13.3 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-20.9%
90-day change-12.6%
Forward EPS estimate$2.44

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect WFG to earn is materially lower (-12.6%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A fiscal-year roll fell inside this window: the forward horizon moved on to the next financial year, which shifts the earnings figure without any analyst changing their view. That step is excluded, so the number above covers the rest of the window rather than all of it.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
28
Position size
$1,953
3.9% of portfolio
Stop price
$52.31
25% below $69.75
$ at risk if stopped
$488.25
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. (WFG): score, valuation & FAQ

West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. (WFG) is a Lumber & Wood Production company that scores 13.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-) and P/S (A-), while Rev (D) and FCF (F) rate weaker.

Is WFG a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores WFG 13.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. That is driven by D/E (A-) and P/S (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does WFG score 13.3 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). WFG earns its highest marks on D/E (A-) and P/S (A-), and is held back by Rev (D) and FCF (F). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is WFG overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for WFG — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in WFG?

Free cash flow is negative (-$315m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Revenue contracting -12% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Currently unprofitable (margin -17.2%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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