Bull Rankings model

West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. (WFG) stock analysis

Lumber & Wood Production. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

★
WFG
West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. · Lumber & Wood Production
14.1Score
$64.25Oct 9 close$5.0B
1Y Target$86.50Analyst consensus · 6 analysts
5Y Target$151.29Compound horizon
10Y Target$270.38Long-dated conviction
FCF-$315mFY · 12/25
F
FCF is negative (-$315m) — cash-burning phase; acceptable only for pre-profit spec names · From the fiscal year ended 12/25 in SEC filings (OCF − CapEx) — this company files no quarterly cash-flow series, so a trailing-twelve-month figure can't be assembled.
Rev-11.5%FY YoY
D
Revenue -11.5% — meaningful contraction · Latest fiscal year vs the prior one, from SEC filings — a trailing-twelve-month comparison couldn't be assembled from this company's filings.
D/E0.07
A-
D/E 0.07 — less debt than most Basic Materials peers (≈25th pctile)
P/S*0.9x
A-
P/S 0.9x — cheaper than most Basic Materials peers (≈25th pctile)
PEG*—
—
PEG n/a — no positive earnings to base it on

* P/S replaces P/E — no positive earnings to divide by

* PEG n/a — no positive earnings to base it on

Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology

Quality-growth score · 14.1
Quality34.1
Growth13.8
Value6.0
Why this score
  • Buying back stock
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
17% off the 12-month high
Quality signals
Gross profitability17% · C+gross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC-15.1% · Freturn on invested capital — leads the quality score

Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards

Why now
Lumber & Wood Production · market cap $5.0b. 17% off the 52-week high of $76.99. Revenue -12% — in contraction; any catalyst that reverses this triggers re-rating. 6 sell-side analysts rate this a Buy with a mean 1-yr target of $86.50 (implying +35% upside).
Moat
Turnaround / out-of-favor name — GAAP-unprofitable for now, so the durability case is forward-looking: it rests on a recovery (margin normalization, a cyclical upturn or restructuring) or an un-monetized asset (IP / network effects / first-mover position) rather than on current reported results.
Risk
Free cash flow is negative (-$315m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Revenue contracting -12% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Currently unprofitable (margin -17.2%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk.
Horizon
1-3 yr $86.50 (6-analyst consensus) — catalyst-driven; binary events dominate. 5 yr $151.29 — requires the platform / technology to reach commercial scale. 10 yr $270.38 — return distribution heavily skewed.

WFG vs the Top Picks average

PillarWFGBook avgDiff
Quality3483-49
Growth1489-75
Value676-70

Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.

Trend
+0.7 over 82 daily scores
From 13.4 (Jun 22) → 14.1 (now)

One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.

WFG at a glance

THE BULL RANKINGS SCORECARD14.1/ 100 · BULL SCOREPEER MEDIANQUALITY34.1GROWTH13.8VALUE6.0
WHERE THIS SCORE SITS0255075100WFG 14.1Ranks above 4% of 1,709 companies on the quality-growth score.
PRICE IN ITS 52-WEEK RANGE$64.3LOW $57.3HIGH $77Trading at the 35th percentile of its 52-week range ($57.3–$77).
ONE-YEAR MOVE VS ITS BETAFLATThis stock-5%Trailing one-year price change. Price history is not an inputto the Bull Rankings score.

Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change+0.0%
90-day change-12.6%
Forward EPS estimate$2.44

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect WFG to earn is materially lower (-12.6%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A fiscal-year roll fell inside this window: the forward horizon moved on to the next financial year, which shifts the earnings figure without any analyst changing their view. That step is excluded, so the number above covers the rest of the window rather than all of it.

Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →

Shares to buy
31
Position size
$1,992
4.0% of portfolio
Stop price
$48.19
25% below $64.25
$ at risk if stopped
$497.94
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.

West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. (WFG): score, valuation & FAQ

West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. (WFG) is a Lumber & Wood Production company that scores 14.1 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a weak reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (A-) and P/S (A-), while Rev (D) and FCF (F) rate weaker.

Is WFG a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores WFG 14.1 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a weak reading. That is driven by D/E (A-) and P/S (A-). A score is a quantitative screen of West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does WFG score 14.1 on Bull Rankings?

The score leans on quality at 34.1 out of 100, with value the weakest pillar at 6.0 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. WFG earns its highest marks on D/E (A-) and P/S (A-), and is held back by Rev (D) and FCF (F). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so WFG is measured against Lumber & Wood Production peers, not against the market as a whole.

Is WFG overvalued or undervalued?

We don't compute a reliable discounted-cash-flow value for WFG — typically because it is not yet consistently profitable or free-cash-flow positive — so its valuation rests on growth and price-to-sales rather than on earnings-based intrinsic value. Judge it on the trajectory of the business, not a single multiple.

What are the main risks of investing in WFG?

Free cash flow is negative (-$315m) — capital raises or debt issuance likely required; dilution / leverage risk. Revenue contracting -12% — the operational turn is not yet visible in the top line. Currently unprofitable (margin -17.2%) — path to GAAP profitability is the core thesis risk.

New to these metrics? See the guides and the methodology.

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