Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. (SSD) stock analysis
Lumber & Wood Production. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.
★
SSD
Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. · Lumber & Wood Production
61.2Score
$171.12Oct 9 close$7.0B
1Y Target$219.00Analyst consensus · 5 analysts
5Y Target$320.64Compound horizon
10Y Target$475.64Long-dated conviction
FCF$468mTTM · 06/26C
FCF $468m — modest; watch for margin expansion · TTM from SEC filings (OCF − CapEx), four quarters to 06/26.
Rev+6.5%TTM YoYC+
Revenue +6.5% — steady but below market-beating range · Latest four quarters of revenue vs the four before them, from SEC filings.
D/E0.21B+
D/E 0.21 — below the Basic Materials debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E18.8xB
P/E 18.8 — near the Basic Materials median (≈60th pctile)
PEG3.80D
PEG 3.80 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios
Targets: 1-year is analyst consensus where covered, 5- and 10-year are model estimates; the DCF is a cross-check, not a target. Methodology
Quality-growth score · 61.2
Quality83.1
Growth50.0
Value55.3
Why this score
Durable high returns
Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeNear 52-week low
20% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value19% aboveest. fair value ~$144
What the price assumes: free cash flow growing about 10% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten — vs a starting rate of ~6% our model takes as the middle of three readings — analyst estimates, last year's revenue growth, and the company's own multi-year record.
Quality signals
Gross profitability35% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets — not in the score
ROIC18.5% · A-return on invested capital — leads the quality score
Model-generatedFrom reported fundamentals, checked against the figures above · Editorial standards
Why now
Lumber & Wood Production · market cap $7.0b. 20% off the 52-week high of $213.49. 5 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $219.00 (implying +28% upside).
Moat
Net margin 16% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 18% is above 15% — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 124% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $219.00 (5-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $320.64 at ~13% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $475.64 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
SSD vs the Top Picks average
Pillar
SSD
Book avg
Diff
Quality
83
83
in line
Growth
50
89
-39
Value
55
76
-21
Average of today's Top 30 (mean score 82.6); size and sector limits also decide the book.
Score history · SSD
Trend
+9.6 over 80 daily scores
From 51.6 (Jun 22) → 61.2 (now)
One point per daily run; read From → To for the actual range.
SSD at a glance
Same audited fundamentals as the score, unless a card says otherwise.
Analyst estimate revisions
30-day change
+0.0%
90-day change
-1.5%
Forward EPS estimate
$9.71
Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect SSD to earn is drifting lower (-1.5%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.
Estimates move both ways and are not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers →
Position sizing · SSD
$
%
%
Shares to buy
11
Position size
$1,882
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$128.34
25% below $171.12
$ at risk if stopped
$470.58
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio
Math only: excludes commissions, slippage and gap risk. Inputs stay in your browser.
Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. (SSD): score, valuation & FAQ
Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. (SSD) is a Lumber & Wood Production company that scores 61.2 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.
Its strongest graded signals are D/E (B+), while PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, SSD sits about 19% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 10% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten.
Is SSD a good stock to buy?
Bull Rankings scores SSD 61.2 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by D/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc.'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.
Why does SSD score 61.2 on Bull Rankings?
The score leans on quality at 83.1 out of 100, with growth the weakest pillar at 50.0 — the three combine geometrically, so a weak one cannot be papered over by a strong one. SSD earns its highest marks on D/E (B+), and is held back by PEG (D). Each signal is graded against sector-aware thresholds rather than one absolute bar, so SSD is measured against Lumber & Wood Production peers, not against the market as a whole.
Is SSD overvalued or undervalued?
Based on $171.12, SSD sits about 19% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies free cash flow growing about 10% next year, slowing to 4% a year by year ten. It trades at an 18.8x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.
What are the main risks of investing in SSD?
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.