Stock analysis · Bull Rankings model

SSD analysis

Simpson Manufacturing Company,Lumber & Wood Production. Scored on the same transparent model behind the daily rankings.

SSD
Simpson Manufacturing Company, · Lumber & Wood Production
FCF$468mC
Rev+6.5%C+
D/E0.21B+
P/E20.7xB
PEG3.80D
58.3Score
$188.77$7.7B
1Y Target$219.00Analyst consensus · 5 analysts
5Y Target$320.64Compound horizon
10Y Target$475.64Long-dated conviction
FCF$468mTTM
C
FCF $468m — modest; watch for margin expansion
Rev+6.5%TTM YoY
C+
Revenue +6.5% — steady but below market-beating range
D/E0.21
B+
D/E 0.21 — below the Basic Materials debt median (≈40th pctile)
P/E20.7x
B
P/E 20.7 — near the Basic Materials median (≈60th pctile)
PEG3.80
D
PEG 3.80 — very expensive; pricing in best-case scenarios

Forward price target — the 1-year figure is the analyst consensus where the stock is covered; the 5- and 10-year figures compound our earnings estimate from there. The DCF below is a separate cross-check on intrinsic value (what it's worth today), not another target.

Quality-growth score · 58.3
Quality83.2
Growth50.0
Value47.7
Why this score
  • Durable high returns
  • Cyclical growth
Entry · Margin of safety
52-week rangeMid-range
12% off the 12-month high
vs DCF fair value28% aboveest. fair value ~$148
What the price assumes: free cash flow compounding at ~12% a year for the next decade — vs the ~7% a year our model projects from current growth and analyst estimates.
Quality signals · context only
Gross profitability35% · B+gross profit ÷ total assets (Novy-Marx)
ROIC18.5% · A-return on invested capital — not score-weighted

Model-generatedGenerated by the Bull Rankings model from this company's reported fundamentals, and checked against the figures shown above.

Why now
Lumber & Wood Production · market cap $7.7b. 12% off the 52-week high of $213.49. 5 sell-side analysts publish a mean 1-yr target of $219.00 (implying +16% upside).
Moat
Net margin 16% beats the market median by a meaningful margin — the company is keeping more of every revenue dollar than the average S&P constituent. ROE 18% sits above Buffett's preferred 15% threshold — the equity base is compounding at a rate the market struggles to discount accurately. FCF converts 124% of net income — earnings translate cleanly into cash, a sign that working capital and capex are well-disciplined.
Risk
Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.
Horizon
1-3 yr $219.00 (5-analyst consensus) — fundamentals + valuation re-rating. 5 yr $320.64 at ~11% CAGR — compounding case rests on the competitive position widening. 10 yr $475.64 if current growth sustains into durable earnings power.
Not investment advice. The Bull Rankings publishes a quantitative ranking model and accompanying analysis for general informational purposes only. Nothing on this page is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security; nothing is personalized to your circumstances, risk tolerance, or tax situation. Investing carries the risk of loss — invest at your own risk and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before acting on anything you read here. See terms and methodology for full disclosures.

SSD vs the Top Picks average

PillarSSDBook avgDiff
Quality0.830.84in line
Growth0.500.84-0.34
Value0.480.78-0.31

Averaged across the 30 names in today's Top Picks (mean score 81.5). A name can beat these averages and still be absent from the book — it also applies concentration limits.

Trend
+6.7 over 45 daily scores
From 51.6 (Jun 22) → 58.3 (now)

One point per daily model run. The range autoscales, so a flat-looking line can still hide 1–2 point moves — read the From → To values for the actual range.

Analyst estimate revisions

30-day change-1.5%
90-day change-1.5%
Forward EPS estimate$9.71

Over the last 90 days, what analysts expect SSD to earn is drifting lower (-1.5%). The estimate is derived from price and forward P/E captured at the same instant, so a moving share price does not move this number — only a changed forecast does.

A rising estimate means expectations are improving, not that the price has failed to keep up — and estimates get cut as readily as they get raised. It is not part of the Bull Rankings score. Biggest movers across the market →

Shares to buy
10
Position size
$1,888
3.8% of portfolio
Stop price
$141.58
25% below $188.77
$ at risk if stopped
$471.93
budget $500.00 · 1% of portfolio

Math only — share count is floor(portfolio × risk% ÷ (price × stop%)). Doesn't account for commissions, slippage, gap risk, or position-correlation across your book. Inputs persist locally; never sent to the server. Not investment advice.

Simpson Manufacturing Company, (SSD): score, valuation & FAQ

Simpson Manufacturing Company, (SSD) is a Lumber & Wood Production company that scores 58.3 out of 100 on the Bull Rankings quality-growth model — a middling reading. The score blends three pillars — quality (durable returns, healthy margins, low leverage), growth (revenue and earnings), and value (valuation versus sector peers) — into one number, refreshed daily; it is a screen, not a buy recommendation.

Its strongest graded signals are D/E (B+), while PEG (D) rate weaker. On valuation, SSD sits about 28% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 12% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade.

Is SSD a good stock to buy?

Bull Rankings scores SSD 58.3 out of 100 on its quality-growth model, which is a middling reading. That is driven by D/E (B+). A score is a quantitative screen of Simpson Manufacturing Company,'s fundamentals, not personalised financial advice — weigh it against your own time horizon and risk tolerance, and read the risk factors below before acting.

Why does SSD score 58.3 on Bull Rankings?

The quality-growth score blends three pillars — quality (returns on capital, margins, leverage, earnings quality), growth (revenue and earnings expansion), and value (valuation versus sector peers). SSD earns its highest marks on D/E (B+), and is held back by PEG (D). Each pillar is graded against sector-aware thresholds, then combined into the single 0–100 score.

Is SSD overvalued or undervalued?

Based on $188.77, SSD sits about 28% above our discounted-cash-flow fair value — the current price implies roughly 12% annual free-cash-flow growth over the next decade. It trades at a 20.7x P/E (graded B). Discounted-cash-flow estimates are sensitive to growth and discount-rate assumptions, so treat this as a cross-check, not a price target.

What are the main risks of investing in SSD?

Mature compounder — the risk is paying up for quality at a moment when growth is decelerating. Watch for sequential revenue + margin trends; the inflection from "compounder" to "ex-compounder" is hard to spot until the multiple already started compressing.

New to these metrics? The guides explain free cash flow, how the score works, and more in the learn hub — or run another name through the screener.

Bull Rankings is an automated fundamentals screen for research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial advisor.

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